Flooding in Tulsa

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CGS1

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dennishoddy

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Kaw opened the gates to 7.5’ releasing 108,000 cfs at noon today. Yesterday they were open 5.5’ discharging 85,000 cfs. We got 3” rain last night.
We started at 2am this morning moving cattle off the river bottoms in anticipation of this event by horseback and ATV. Got all we could get out except for one longhorn that refused to cooperate. A car is sunk at the end of our driveway, but they all got out.
Our water well is under water and contaminated, but the house is on high ground. We can’t get out unless we cut the fence and drive out on the lease roads. The freezer is full of elk, deer and fish. The likker cabinet is full of good stuff so we just have to wait it out.
The bridge over Kaw Lake appears to have suffered some damage.
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JD8

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They went into the '86 event with much lower river levels downstream due to the event (hurricane paine remnants) being more localized to NC Oklahoma. That's why the Arkansas @ Muskogee is exceeding the '86 level by 5ft right now even with much lower Keystone releases. All the lakes being so high, all the rivers cresting at records, all this rain in multiple locations and drainages over such a long period...this is so much more complex than '86. It's unprecedented.

I do not see this going well. The ACOE press conference today at 10:00 am was full of optimism and they were talking about scaling back releases Sunday afternoon and all but challenging us all to a celebratory round of frisbee golf at 41st and Riverside on Monday. I think that's grossly irresponsible. I guarantee you every staff member at ACOE knows it is a likely possibility Keystone releases will go up. Not down. 2-4" of rain in the Ark River basin over Kaw and Keystone this weekend will not allow them to decrease releases that and they know it. And that's just this weekend. There will be more rain next week. I am expecting 300K+. As a start.

I get that they don't want to be doom and gloom or panic people for no reason, but going from "everything cool guys" to having some sleepless caffeine addled corps dude have to break it to the media in a couple days that releases are going up is going to be a bad look.


To your point....

https://www.newson6.com/story/40532488/recent-rains-making-large-impact-on-arkansas-river-basin
 

RidgeHunter

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Yeah I see reality is getting some press this evening. It's pouring in Wichita tonight. Insane rainfall rates. NWS Wichita is retweeting some great photos/videos/reports right now.

People will remember this PR blunder as long as they do the flood. Bixby lowlanders who evacuated too early will be moving back in right before the flood actually hits I bet. Drove through there today, lots of empty dry houses with sandbags around them. Saw business taking the bags down.

I just don't see how NOAA, SPC, NWS, etc can be so consistently excellent about coveying pertinent information to the public with incredible accuracy and timeliness and the corps is this bad. This is as important if not more than severe weather forecasting. It would be like if the SPC said on convective outlooks that "tornadoes aren't on the ground right now so they're not a threat to anyone. right now we will be holding steady with no tornadoes until a tornado occurs. hope this helps". This needs to be addressed top down at ACOE
 
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