I didn't know where to post this.
I am a firm believer that international winds are changing about the outlook for the US dollar being the reserve currency of the world. History will tell us that we, US, are nearing the end of the average timeline (70 years) for countries to maintain reserve currency status. Not only the reserve currency status, but also pure fiat currency usage (42 years). Since history is told by the winners and the winners will leave out items that tell of their eventual demise, I do firmly agree and accept that the winds of change are blowing.
Most never see crisis coming (stock market 1929, 1987, 2001, 2007/8; housing collapse 2007 (which was really a banking collapse never properly cleaned, just papered over); oil bust), but a few macro watchers do see issues under the surface before the breech.
The attached is a discussion of four different macro advisors that manage hedge funds or advise high net worth as to the financial winds direction. All four agree that a period of change is upon us, but how it plays out is divided. All four have a timeline that this change will occur between now and 2030. IMO Luke Gromen is closer than the rest as to what will transpire between now and the final outcome. He gives his op in part 3 and 4.
I understand this does not sit well with many, but history does repeat. The past will tell a future to those with an understanding that events are not the same, but fulfill similar outcomes in the broad (macro).
https://www.macrovoices.com/336-anatomy-of-the-u-s-dollar-end-game-part-1-of-5
Anatomy of the U.S. Dollar End Game Part 1 of 5
Published: 23 December 2017
Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. In part 1 of the 5 part series, Jeffrey Snider presents:
I am a firm believer that international winds are changing about the outlook for the US dollar being the reserve currency of the world. History will tell us that we, US, are nearing the end of the average timeline (70 years) for countries to maintain reserve currency status. Not only the reserve currency status, but also pure fiat currency usage (42 years). Since history is told by the winners and the winners will leave out items that tell of their eventual demise, I do firmly agree and accept that the winds of change are blowing.
Most never see crisis coming (stock market 1929, 1987, 2001, 2007/8; housing collapse 2007 (which was really a banking collapse never properly cleaned, just papered over); oil bust), but a few macro watchers do see issues under the surface before the breech.
The attached is a discussion of four different macro advisors that manage hedge funds or advise high net worth as to the financial winds direction. All four agree that a period of change is upon us, but how it plays out is divided. All four have a timeline that this change will occur between now and 2030. IMO Luke Gromen is closer than the rest as to what will transpire between now and the final outcome. He gives his op in part 3 and 4.
I understand this does not sit well with many, but history does repeat. The past will tell a future to those with an understanding that events are not the same, but fulfill similar outcomes in the broad (macro).
https://www.macrovoices.com/336-anatomy-of-the-u-s-dollar-end-game-part-1-of-5
Anatomy of the U.S. Dollar End Game Part 1 of 5
Published: 23 December 2017
- Overview of the big picture story
- Perspectives on where we are today
- Bulls vs. Bears (nobody wins)
- Bank of Russia operations in FX repo auctions
- Brazilian Real and the US dollar funding
- China’s management of the US dollar
- The evolving Chinese response
