All hell is breaking loose in Tulsa Area

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jmike314

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School me.......
Looks like both have sunk.
With water levels what they are and more coming as well as the increase in speed of current - how much damage can those barges do to the dam underwater?


“Crying is for babies, little girls, and men who just had their ears ripped off.”
- Oobedoob Benubi
 

adamsredlines

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They just sent everybody at work who lives on the other side of the river home in anticipation that the brides will be flooded and impassible once they open the dam more. Crazy stuff!
 

cktad

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School me.......
Looks like both have sunk.
With water levels what they are and more coming as well as the increase in speed of current - how much damage can those barges do to the dam underwater?


“Crying is for babies, little girls, and men who just had their ears ripped off.”
- Oobedoob Benubi
I worked on a similar project about 25 years ago. Two barges had broken loose and jammed in the gates of Lock 2 on the lower Arkansas River. The problem is when the lock get jammed and water goes over the top of the gates and overshoots the apron as it undercuts the foundation, which can lead to a catastrophic failure.
 

RidgeHunter

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Inflow @ keystone is 280k, outflow is 250k flood pool is @ 99.48% Looks like we are in for a repeat of the 86 flood here. That's all according the army corp website

This is going to make '86 look like wal-mart kiddie pool overturned.

The COE is not necessarily doing a bad job at anything other than communicating. This is unfolding as an unprecedented situation. '86 wasn't compounded by high river levels downstream going in to the event, hence why the Arkansas has already exceed '86 levels @ Muskogee even with much lower Keystone releases than '86. There's only so much they can do with this unprecedented amount of water.

That said I think it is beyond irresponsible they did (2) press conferences today where they said they will be going to 250K and holding it through the weekend, then slowing releases. Then he said "that said, if there are more rains upstream that could change"

If the day ends in f***ing "y" they may have to up releases. It's raining all over KS and NB as I type this post. NWS Wichita and NWS Tulsa have been very strong in their wording about the heavy rains in the upcoming forecast period. It's raining. It's going to rain. Kaw cannot maintain this piddly level of release when the inflow spikes even higher in the coming days/hours.

300K+ CFS is coming. It's pretty obvious and I failed several math classes. I would bet cash money on 300K+ and I'd bet a sixer on 325K+. They should just say it.

https://twitter.com/NWSWichita/status/1131508161309945858
 

RidgeHunter

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I guess they are trying not to panic people? But how's that going to work out when they have to crank the gates up another foot or two on the day they said they'd be starting to slowly close them? People are going to freak out and never trust them again. If they do now.

I also understand the whole "we're hydrologists, we work off readings and gauges and not made up voodoo weather forecasts from the NWS that may not pan out. We adjust based on our gauges" but dang, it's not like those dude's don't know what's coming. 3:00 pm today from NWS Wichita. And they say releases won't increase. Insanity.

A heightened flash flood risk may develop this evening through the
overnight hours as multiple rounds of thunderstorms move over the
same general area. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
convective evolution, but given the recent rains, wet soils, and
high moisture content, the potential of very efficient rainfall
exists. Where storms train over the same area, we could be looking
at 3-5"+. If storms end up more progressive, the amounts could be
lower overall. But, with very low flash flood guidance, it won`t
take much to cause flooding. Aside from the flash flood threat,
river flooding will continue to be a significant and long-lasting
threat well into next week.

Did the NWS beat the COE at gov't softball or something?
 

Aries

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I was a service tech for the gas company during that '86 flood. I think I worked over 50 hours of overtime in a 3-4 week period, it was exhausting. I feel for those who are going to have to deal with this.

EDIT: Wait a sec... after thinking about it, I believe it was 50 some hours two pay periods in a row, around 100 hours total in a month. I'm not sure, it was 32 years ago... LOL!
 
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dennishoddy

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I guess they are trying not to panic people? But how's that going to work out when they have to crank the gates up another foot or two on the day they said they'd be starting to slowly close them? People are going to freak out and never trust them again. If they do now.

I also understand the whole "we're hydrologists, we work off readings and gauges and not made up voodoo weather forecasts from the NWS that may not pan out. We adjust based on our gauges" but dang, it's not like those dude's don't know what's coming. 3:00 pm today from NWS Wichita. And they say releases won't increase. Insanity.

A heightened flash flood risk may develop this evening through the
overnight hours as multiple rounds of thunderstorms move over the
same general area. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
convective evolution, but given the recent rains, wet soils, and
high moisture content, the potential of very efficient rainfall
exists. Where storms train over the same area, we could be looking
at 3-5"+. If storms end up more progressive, the amounts could be
lower overall. But, with very low flash flood guidance, it won`t
take much to cause flooding. Aside from the flash flood threat,
river flooding will continue to be a significant and long-lasting
threat well into next week.

Did the NWS beat the COE at gov't softball or something?

They can only go on the gauges if the inflow is going to be stable or going down. We have a predicted 3-5" of rain predicted in the Kaw lake watershed tonight. Guess where that water has to go? Keystone and Kaw is about to go over the dam. They have opened the gates on Kaw to levels not seen since 1989 I think it was and down stream flooding has already displaced hundreds of folks between Kaw and Keystone.
Hundreds more will be displaced more with the gate opening tonight.
 

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