Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

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LightningCrash

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The odds are greatly in your favor to never be in an auto accident, yet [even without the law requiring us to do so] we buckle up every time we pull out of the driveway.

Shelters, firearms, and seatbelts can all be lumped into that same generic category. They're items you hope like hell you'll never have to use, but if that time comes, you'll be damn sure glad you had them.

IIRC there's a 30% or so chance of a serious car accident in your lifetime.

Part of the issue here is that you face a low-risk situation repeatedly. Human reaction to low-risk scenarios are interesting.
Two good reads by Jared Diamond on reducing risks:
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/29/science/jared-diamonds-guide-to-reducing-lifes-risks.html?_r=0
http://revkin.tumblr.com/post/39303933993/in-edge-video-chat-jared-diamond-explains-his
 

Dale00

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It is a great question.

I recall a meteorologist from OU stating, during a lecture on tornadoes, that a person would have to stand in one spot in Oklahoma for 2,000 years in order to be hit by one.

If correct, it means that the chances of being hit by a tornado each year is 1 / 2000 = 0.0005.... or 0.05% (5 one-hundredths of a percent)


A total of 29,579 residential burglaries in Oklahoma were reported in 2011. See 3-15 in http://www.ok.gov/osbi/documents/2011%20UCR%20Annual%20Report.pdf

There 1,432,735 households in Oklahoma. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/40000.html

29579 burglaries per year / 1432735 households = 0.0206....so there is a 2.06% chance of being burglarized in a year.

2.06/0.05 = 41.2......A person is 40 times more likely to have a break-in than to be hit by a tornado in Oklahoma.

Burglaries are common and they don't usually make compelling news stories. So our perceptions are skewed.
 
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GUN DOG

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I guess I squew the odds a little, I have been in an F5 tornado but never an attempt of a forced entry. I am prepaired for both hope I just didn't jink myself
 

scha2707

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I agree that home invasions are more likely. However, my home and my wife's (we were not married at the time they were our childhood homes) were hit by a tornado in western Oklahoma in 2001 and our house got hit this past April in Mustang. I am prepared for both scenarios.
 

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