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The Water Cooler
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02.26.2023 - A watch the weather day
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<blockquote data-quote="SCAROK" data-source="post: 3978063" data-attributes="member: 29023"><p>[ATTACH=full]352650[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Day 1 Convective Outlook </p><p> NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK</p><p> 1029 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023</p><p></p><p> Valid 261630Z - 271200Z</p><p></p><p> ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON</p><p> WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...</p><p></p><p> ...SUMMARY...</p><p> A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and embedded</p><p> swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph, centered on</p><p> parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Embedded tornadoes are</p><p> anticipated as well, with the greatest potential for strong</p><p> (EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest Oklahoma this evening.</p><p></p><p> ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...</p><p> Just-in-time moisture return from the western Gulf is still</p><p> anticipated ahead of a powerful shortwave trough ejecting from the</p><p> Southwest to the Lower MO Valley. 60+ F surface dew points remain</p><p> confined from the Piney Woods of east TX to the Concho Valley and</p><p> Edwards Plateau of west TX as of 16Z. Guidance continues to differ</p><p> with the northern extent of this richer moisture by evening in KS/OK</p><p> beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Widespread cloudiness is also</p><p> evident over much of the southern Great Plains, although clearing</p><p> should occur from west to east across the High Plains. The net</p><p> result should be a narrow plume of surface-based instability along</p><p> the dryline from southwest KS to west TX between 21-00Z. </p><p></p><p> Scattered convection will break out after 21Z along the dryline and</p><p> become supercellular towards 00Z given very favorably enlarged low</p><p> to mid-level hodographs. Further moistening into the evening should</p><p> result in the most favorable potential for supercell tornadoes in</p><p> southwest OK between 00-03Z, in addition to very large hail.</p><p> Convection will likely grow quickly upscale into a solid QLCS,</p><p> accelerating east-northeast with embedded supercells and</p><p> mesovortices. Extreme low-level shear profiles in conjunction with</p><p> strengthening of 700-mb winds to around 90 kts behind the line</p><p> should result in widespread severe wind gusts. Embedded swaths of</p><p> 80-110 mph winds both straightline and rotating are likely, with</p><p> stronger speeds into the EF2 range possible, until the QLCS outpaces</p><p> the richer moisture in the OK/KS/MO border area overnight. Scattered</p><p> damaging winds from strong to severe gusts may linger through the</p><p> early morning across MO towards the Mid-MS Valley, despite little to</p><p> no buoyancy, given the intense low-level wind fields</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="SCAROK, post: 3978063, member: 29023"] [ATTACH type="full"]352650[/ATTACH] Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and embedded swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph, centered on parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Embedded tornadoes are anticipated as well, with the greatest potential for strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest Oklahoma this evening. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... Just-in-time moisture return from the western Gulf is still anticipated ahead of a powerful shortwave trough ejecting from the Southwest to the Lower MO Valley. 60+ F surface dew points remain confined from the Piney Woods of east TX to the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau of west TX as of 16Z. Guidance continues to differ with the northern extent of this richer moisture by evening in KS/OK beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Widespread cloudiness is also evident over much of the southern Great Plains, although clearing should occur from west to east across the High Plains. The net result should be a narrow plume of surface-based instability along the dryline from southwest KS to west TX between 21-00Z. Scattered convection will break out after 21Z along the dryline and become supercellular towards 00Z given very favorably enlarged low to mid-level hodographs. Further moistening into the evening should result in the most favorable potential for supercell tornadoes in southwest OK between 00-03Z, in addition to very large hail. Convection will likely grow quickly upscale into a solid QLCS, accelerating east-northeast with embedded supercells and mesovortices. Extreme low-level shear profiles in conjunction with strengthening of 700-mb winds to around 90 kts behind the line should result in widespread severe wind gusts. Embedded swaths of 80-110 mph winds both straightline and rotating are likely, with stronger speeds into the EF2 range possible, until the QLCS outpaces the richer moisture in the OK/KS/MO border area overnight. Scattered damaging winds from strong to severe gusts may linger through the early morning across MO towards the Mid-MS Valley, despite little to no buoyancy, given the intense low-level wind fields [/QUOTE]
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