I'm sure people said the same thing about lead acid, ni-cad, alkaline, etc.... Li-Ion may be at the height of it's possible tech development, but to say batteries are at their pinnacle is just as shortsighted.
I'm sure people said the same thing about lead acid, ni-cad, alkaline, etc.... Li-Ion may be at the height of it's possible tech development, but to say batteries are at their pinnacle is just as shortsighted.
Not really. How much energy do you think can be stored inside a battery that the vehicle itself has to move? You're not going to pull a trailer full of batteries, and the laws of physics apply regardless of how much you improve battery output.
Look at internal combustion. We have improved immensely in power and fuel economy in the last 50 years. But that has taken it to the upper end. They will get a bit better economy, and more powerful in the future. But it will come at the expense of enormous complexity not to mention production and repair cost. MDS systems, along with Variable Valve timing, turbochargers, are very expensive to develop, produce, and maintain.
And they are very costly to replace when they go south. To the point where people either lease, or else trade in when the warranty is up. They have become too much of a financial risk to own out of warranty. These multi speed transmissions alone can cost upward of $4K+ to replace. After a while they are no longer cost effective in relation to the energy they save or produce.
The fact is electric will never replace gas or Diesel for constant long distance use. Look at the energy in a 50 gallon tank of Diesel. It can be refilled in less than 10 minutes, and that energy has been 100% replaced. A battery can never equal that.
Bill Gates research it and found that if you took all the batteries on planet Earth at full charge. They would only supply the power requirements of the world for 10 minutes.
"All the batteries we make now could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy [in the world]," he said. "So, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here. Something that's going to be of a factor of 100 better than what we have now."
https://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/02/12/bill.gates.clean.energy/index.html
Good luck with that. I've never believed in "miracles".
Look at internal combustion. We have improved immensely in power and fuel economy in the last 50 years. But that has taken it to the upper end. They will get a bit better economy, and more powerful in the future. But it will come at the expense of enormous complexity not to mention production and repair cost. MDS systems, along with Variable Valve timing, turbochargers, are very expensive to develop, produce, and maintain.
And they are very costly to replace when they go south. To the point where people either lease, or else trade in when the warranty is up. They have become too much of a financial risk to own out of warranty. These multi speed transmissions alone can cost upward of $4K+ to replace. After a while they are no longer cost effective in relation to the energy they save or produce.
The fact is electric will never replace gas or Diesel for constant long distance use. Look at the energy in a 50 gallon tank of Diesel. It can be refilled in less than 10 minutes, and that energy has been 100% replaced. A battery can never equal that.
Bill Gates research it and found that if you took all the batteries on planet Earth at full charge. They would only supply the power requirements of the world for 10 minutes.
"All the batteries we make now could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy [in the world]," he said. "So, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here. Something that's going to be of a factor of 100 better than what we have now."
https://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/02/12/bill.gates.clean.energy/index.html
Good luck with that. I've never believed in "miracles".
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So let me get this straight. Elon musk is launching a car to Mars so when the astronauts finally get there they will have an antique vehicle to restore?
He's not landing it on the surface of Mars. It's going to end up it some type of lopsided, elliptical orbit between the Earth and Mars. For what purpose I have no idea.
In August 2019 the car completed it's first orbit of the Sun. I wonder what it looks like now?
That Bill Gates quote is ironic. It's ten years old. When he spoke of batteries, Tesla was still young. Their first roadster had wildly quick specs with a 250mi range. The new roadster has twice the battery pack, but nearly three times the range. It's twice as heavy, yet faster.
You're looking at this as if lithium ion batteries will be the last battery ever developed, and that's not how science works. That's not how anything works.
Imagine if they stopped making guns after the perfect 1911 was invented. What was the point in developing weapons beyond that?
The only real example of a stagnant product being a good thing might have been Glock had they had the foresight to accept their domination before putting out a handful of truly bad pistols over the last five years.
Nobody likes change. You don't have to either, but I can't in good conscience watch someone unknowingly say something so retarded without giving them a heads up. I'm just trying to be a good bro.
Edit: For the record, electric has replaced diesel on most of the big engine equipment. The fuel may run the generators, but the infinitely more powerful electric motors do the real work.
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Future barn find for Tom Cotton.
Again you're missing the point. It's not the speed or the range, it's the recharge time. Try driving a Tesla, or any other modern electric vehicle across the country. You'll never make it. Even Tesla's so called, "fast charge stations" takes forever, compared to filling a fuel tank. And you have a limited amount of times you can fast charge the battery packs without damaging their service life.
Which brings up another point. How much is a battery replacement on these things? It's several thousand dollars, even with a core reimbursement. Then, as I mentioned, what about heating and cooling the thing? You'll have to use resistance heating. That takes as much energy as it does to power the vehicle.
The average hair dryer consumes 1,500 to 1,850 Watts. Now try heating a vehicle with one, and defrosting the windows in Fargo, North Dakota in January, when it's -20F. These are real world conditions people live in every day. Electric vehicles are useless under these conditions.
It's no different with A/C. Even worse because you'll have to use battery energy to power electric motors to turn both the compressor and fans, with no way to replace that energy. It's a losing battle to try to turn an alternator with a battery powered electric motor. And a KERS System like a Formula 1 car uses only works during braking. So on a freeway they are useless. Just as they are on a straightaway on a F1 track.
And battery efficiency, not to mention life, is greatly reduced in extreme temperature climates, when you'll need both heat and A/C the most. Then there is towing. They are completely useless for pulling anything. No matter how you look at this it is a losing battle. It's not just range. That's just the tip of the iceberg. And it's idiotic to compare Diesel / Electric locomotives to battery powered automobiles. The fuel capacity of an average size Diesel locomotive is 2,500 GALLONS. The large mining draglines are even larger.
If you live in San Diego and want to get your wife one, so she can drive to the market and her favorite nail salon, fine. But for driving any kind of long distances, it's never going to happen. Too much energy demand, and no way to produce it, let alone put it back in a timely fashion.
Your claim to fame is, eventually they might come up with something. But the problem is eventually we'll all be dead. We live in the here and now... And a Glock 21 pistol uses the same type of ammunition, along with a similarly designed slide, recoil spring, and barrel as a 1911.
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It'll never happen - famous last words.
Technology and innovation has a strange way of overcoming obstacles (and proving people wrong). I respect your right to hold your opinion, but when you repeatedly, loudly and antagonistically push your opinions as incontrovertible fact when discussing the future and technological innovation, you merely set yourself up for ridicule.
My guess is they will come up with not one but several completely new technologies that will make both our current understanding and implementation of energy storage as well as energy conversion/manipulation completely obsolete. When? I dunno... 10 year, 50 years, 100 years? If we're around that long and the social justice warriors don't kill our economy first, possibly. I think that is a much greater risk than anything else, but hey, who am I? No one, just a regular dude.
Just a few examples:
1:
"Computers may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
2:
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
3:
"Everything that can be invented has been invented."
4:
"There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable."
5:
"With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the US market."
6:
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication."
7:
"Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax."
8:
"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"
9:
"Who wants to hear actors talk?"
10:
"The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon."
1:
"Computers may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
2:
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
3:
"Everything that can be invented has been invented."
4:
"There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable."
5:
"With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the US market."
6:
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication."
7:
"Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax."
8:
"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"
9:
"Who wants to hear actors talk?"
10:
"The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon."
