In the market or out?

[Hirschkopf]

I'm holding on for dear life and contemplating working a couple years longer. If one does not sell, buys on the way down, and history repeats itself (the US market always comes back), all should be well. 2008 likely worked out great for anyone who rode it down (then back up). If it works, this link should show a graph of the market index declines we've seen year-to-date:

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index: - 17.2%
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index: - 10.9%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index - 18.6%

Vanguard Total Market Indexes: US, Bonds, Total International Stock

But we've never had as many leaders in DC, or manipulating them, who hate America, so this time things could be worse :-(

 

[SlugSlinger]

Investing for the layman.

 

[Shadowrider]

Friday and Monday were brutal but today it came right back. Yesterday was was green too but the numbers weren’t as high as today. Oil & gas ain’t going away. If it does it doesn’t matter anyway!

 

[SlugSlinger]

This is what the crash of 2008 looked like. There were some bump ups but the trend was down what, 50%?

 

[SlugSlinger]

And this is where we’re at today. We haven’t seen anything yet.

 

[Letfreedomring]

Moved all my TSP into cash last September and as of the last statement I am down .58% from the move. I more than doubled my TSP from the Covid craziness but I can’t claim that I knew what I was doing, blind luck?

When do I move it back is the question, and into what?

Move it into whatever the gin hag Pelosi is buying. Can't lose that way!

 

[Duncandl]

Move it into whatever the gin hag Pelosi is buying. Can't lose that way!

I think I will leave it where it is for a few more months, lol. I read part of an article today from Fedsmith and every one of the funds I had my money in tanked over the last year, I think for once in my life my gut has paid off.

 

[SlugSlinger]

I think I will leave it where it is for a few more months, lol. I read part of an article today from Fedsmith and every one of the funds I had my money in tanked over the last year, I think for once in my life my gut has paid off.

Patience is your friend at this point.

 

[xtremerange]

All assets classes are going down in the aggregate. No safe haven. Cash depreciates at the rate of inflation.

Doesn't look as bad as 2008-2009. So much money on the sidelines that TINA in the long term. Unless you trust yourself to catch the falling knife.

 

[SlugSlinger]

Latest inflation information not looking good. More rate and possibly steeper rate increases coming our way. Bad new for the market.

Fed's preferred inflation gauge accelerated more than expected in August​

Economists expected core inflation to increase in August​

Megan HenneyPublished September 30, 2022 8:33am EDT
video
Aegon Asset Management chief macro strategist Frank Rybinski argues until there is a 'dovish Fed pivot' market volatility will persist on 'The Claman Countdown.'
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge accelerated again in August, keeping prices elevated near a four-decade high, according to new data released Friday,

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed that core prices, which strip out the more volatile measurements of food and energy, climbed 0.6% from the previous month and rose 4.9% on an annual basis, according to the Commerce Department.

Those figures are both higher than the 0.5% monthly increase and 4.7% annual increase forecast by Refinitiv economists, indicating that inflationary pressures are broadening throughout the economy. The reading is also up from July's annual increase of 4.7%.

The more encompassing headline figure rose 6.2% on an annual basis after prices rose 0.3% from the previous month, compared with a 0.1% decline in July. That increase came despite a sharp decline in gas prices.

THE FED'S WAR ON INFLATION COULD COST 1M JOBS

A customer shops at a supermarket in Millbrae, California. (Li Jianguo/Xinhua via Getty Images / Getty Images)
While the Fed is targeting the PCE headline figure as it tries to wrestle consumer prices back to 2%, Chair Jerome Powell previously told reporters that core data is actually a better indicator of inflation.

"Core inflation is a better predictor of inflation going forward," Powell said. "Headline inflation tends to be volatile."

SEVERE RECESSION NEEDED TO COOL INFLATION, BANK OF AMERICA ANALYSTS SAY

However, both the core and headline numbers point to inflation that is running well above the Fed's preferred 2% target, a troubling sign as the central bank is already hiking interest rates at the fastest pace in decades.

Policymakers have already approved five consecutive rate hikes, including three back-to-back 75 basis point increases, and have shown no signs of slowing down. At their latest meeting last week, Fed officials laid out an aggressive rate-hike trajectory that would put the federal funds target rate well into restrictive territory by the end of the year.

"Core inflation accelerated, likely keeping the Fed on track for another aggressive 0.75% increase to the Fed funds rate in November," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, D.C., on May 4, 2022. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
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Despite scorching-hot inflation, the report showed consumers continued to open their wallets in August: Spending rose 0.4% after declining 0.2% the month before. However, after-tax income increase just 0.1% after rising 0.5% the previous month.

Inflation-adjusted spending rose just 0.1%.

"The U.S. looks poised to eke out positive GDP [gross domestic product] growth in the third quarter, after two consecutive quarters of negative growth," Roach said. "But growth may not last long. A recession looks more likely in early 2023 as the economy eventually breaks under the pressure of an aggressive Federal Reserve."