I work with the data every day. The numbers started dropping well before the vaccine was offered outside of the Tier I group (and before any of the Tier I's had their second dose). Not sure why we're seeing this; if it could be due to a lower herd threshold than they estimated, whether the Tier I's first dose was ultra effective along with lower herd threshold, etc. One thing I know by working with this data for the past 9 months, is that having everyone isolated didn't necessarily correlate to 'flattening the curve'. It will be interesting to see the studies that will be released in the near future