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The Water Cooler
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Ok, that's it. I just saw the stupidest thing ever!
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<blockquote data-quote="BobbyV" data-source="post: 3368690" data-attributes="member: 32629"><p><a href="https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-new-study-demonstrates-low-coronavirus-fatality-rate-outside-nursing-homes/" target="_blank">https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-new-study-demonstrates-low-coronavirus-fatality-rate-outside-nursing-homes/</a></p><p></p><p>A portion of this article is below . . . </p><p></p><p>To begin with, the media and politicians are still promoting high overall infection fatality rates (IFR), such as the <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop" target="_blank">World Health Organization’s estimate</a> of 3.4%. But we’ve seen enough <a href="https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-new-antibody-study-strong-evidence-lockdown-strategy-wrong-course/" target="_blank">random sampling from serological antibody tests</a>, corroborated <a href="https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-now-know-majority-contract-covid-19-asymptomatic-changes-everything/" target="_blank">by hard data from prisons and navy ships</a>, to demonstrate that the virus spread earlier, wider, and more asymptomatically than previously thought, thereby driving the fatality rate much lower. A new analysis averaging all the major antibody tests indicates that the average overall fatality rate (including nursing home deaths) is 0.2%. Why have our policies not been updated to reflect that reality?</p><p></p><p>This week, Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1" target="_blank">published a preprint</a> (before peer review) analysis averaging the fatality rates reflected in the extrapolation of all the serology tests with a sample size larger than 500 and that were randomly sampled (as opposed to health care workers). These tests measure the seroprevalence – the prevalence of antibodies for the virus in a given population – through some degree of random sampling.</p><p></p><p>Based on these random samples, the Stanford professor of medicine, epidemiology, biomedical data science, and statistics concluded that the fatality rate ranges from 0.02% to 0.40%. That is a range of seven times <em>less deadly</em> or 2.8 times more deadly than seasonal influenza.</p><p></p><p>The mean IFR is 0.2%, right around the result we saw from the first U.S. serology studies in Santa Clara, Los Angeles, and Miami Dade Counties. That is <em>17 times less deadly</em> than what the World Health Organization originally predicted and 4.5 times less deadly than the Imperial College study assumed!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BobbyV, post: 3368690, member: 32629"] [URL]https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-new-study-demonstrates-low-coronavirus-fatality-rate-outside-nursing-homes/[/URL] A portion of this article is below . . . To begin with, the media and politicians are still promoting high overall infection fatality rates (IFR), such as the [URL='https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop']World Health Organization’s estimate[/URL] of 3.4%. But we’ve seen enough [URL='https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-new-antibody-study-strong-evidence-lockdown-strategy-wrong-course/']random sampling from serological antibody tests[/URL], corroborated [URL='https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-now-know-majority-contract-covid-19-asymptomatic-changes-everything/']by hard data from prisons and navy ships[/URL], to demonstrate that the virus spread earlier, wider, and more asymptomatically than previously thought, thereby driving the fatality rate much lower. A new analysis averaging all the major antibody tests indicates that the average overall fatality rate (including nursing home deaths) is 0.2%. Why have our policies not been updated to reflect that reality? This week, Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis [URL='https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1']published a preprint[/URL] (before peer review) analysis averaging the fatality rates reflected in the extrapolation of all the serology tests with a sample size larger than 500 and that were randomly sampled (as opposed to health care workers). These tests measure the seroprevalence – the prevalence of antibodies for the virus in a given population – through some degree of random sampling. Based on these random samples, the Stanford professor of medicine, epidemiology, biomedical data science, and statistics concluded that the fatality rate ranges from 0.02% to 0.40%. That is a range of seven times [I]less deadly[/I] or 2.8 times more deadly than seasonal influenza. The mean IFR is 0.2%, right around the result we saw from the first U.S. serology studies in Santa Clara, Los Angeles, and Miami Dade Counties. That is [I]17 times less deadly[/I] than what the World Health Organization originally predicted and 4.5 times less deadly than the Imperial College study assumed! [/QUOTE]
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