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<blockquote data-quote="_CY_" data-source="post: 2906422" data-attributes="member: 7629"><p>let's drill in a bit shall we? "actual scientific proxy data" </p><p><span style="font-size: 22px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 22px">the Greenland Ice Sheet Project looks to be based on interpolation of ice core data .. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: 22px">first we have the official line from scientist working on said project who of course claim tracking of all sort of climatatic events from the coring samples. then we quickly find all sorts of skeptics who think otherwise .. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: 22px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 22px">who is right and who is full of crap .. since I'm pretty sure none of these scientist were around back 10,000+ years ago. they really don't know .. they could be right or not? </span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong><a href="http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/" target="_blank">GISP2 Home Page</a></strong></span></p><p>www.<strong>gisp2</strong>.sr.unh.edu/</p><p>University of New Hampshire</p><p>With the completion of the <em>GISP2</em> drilling program and a companion European ice coring effort, a new era in paleoenvironmental investigation has been opened.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong><a href="https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=337" target="_blank">GISP2 temperature data - Skeptical Science</a></strong></span></p><p><a href="https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=337" target="_blank">https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=337</a></p><p>Skeptical Science</p><p>Figure 4 shows temperatures from the <em>GISP2</em> Greenland ice core. With the exception of a brief warm period about 8,200 years ago, the entire period from 1,500 ...</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong><a href="ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt" target="_blank">GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data</a></strong></span></p><p>ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/.../<strong>gisp2</strong>/.../<strong>gisp2</strong>_temp_accum_a...</p><p>National Climatic Data Center</p><p><em>GISP2</em> Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series #2004-013. NOAA/NGDC ...</p><p></p><p>=======</p><p></p><p><strong>What The Science Says:</strong></p><p>This argument uses temperatures from the top of the Greenland ice sheet. This data ends in 1855, long before modern global warming began. It also reflects regional Greenland warming, not global warming.</p><p></p><p><strong>Climate Myth: Most of the last 10,000 years were warmer</strong></p><p>Even if the warming were as big as the IPCC imagines, it would not be as dangerous as Mr. Brown suggests. After all, recent research suggests that some 9,100 of the past 10,500 years were warmer than the present by up to 3 Celsius degrees: yet here we all are. (<a href="http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/brisbane_floods.pdf" target="_blank">Christopher Monckton</a>)</p><p></p><p>This argument is based on the work of Don Easterbrook who relies on temperatures at the top of the Greenland ice sheet as a proxy for global temperatures. That’s a fatal flaw, before we even begin to examine the use of the ice core data. A single regional record cannot stand in for the global record — local variability will be higher than the global, plus we have evidence that Antarctic temperatures swing in the opposite direction to Arctic changes. Richard Alley discussed that <a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/08/richard-alley-on-old-ice-climate-and-co2/" target="_blank">in some detail</a> at <em>Dot Earth</em> last year, and it’s well worth reading his comments. Easterbrook, however, is content to ignore someone who has worked in this field, and relies entirely on Greenland data to make his case.</p><p></p><p>Most of the past 10,000 [years] have been warmer than the present. Figure 4 shows temperatures from the GISP2 Greenland ice core. With the exception of a brief warm period about 8,200 years ago, the entire period from 1,500 to 10,500 years ago was significantly warmer than present.</p><p></p><p>This is Easterbrook’s Fig 4:</p><p></p><p><img src="https://www.okshooters.com/data/MetaMirrorCache/hot_topic.co.nz_wp_content_uploads_2011_01_easterbrook_fig41.jpg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p>It’s a graph he’s used before, in various forms, almost certainly copied and altered from the original (click image below to see source: the NOAA web page for Richard Alley’s 2000 paper <em>The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland</em>, though DE credits it as “Modified from Cuffy and Clow, 1997″, misspelling Kurt Cuffey’s name in the process:</p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.okshooters.com/data/MetaMirrorCache/www.ncdc.noaa.gov_paleo_pubs_alley2000_alley2000.gif" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a></p><p></p><p>Easterbrook continues:</p><p></p><p>Another graph of temperatures from the Greenland ice core for the past 10,000 years is shown in Figure 5. It shows essentially the same temperatures as Cuffy and Clow (1997) but with somewhat greater detail. What both of these temperature curves show is that virtually all of the past 10,000 years has been warmer than the present.</p><p></p><p>This is his Fig 5:</p><p></p><p><img src="https://www.okshooters.com/data/MetaMirrorCache/hot_topic.co.nz_wp_content_uploads_2011_01_easterbrook_fig5.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p>Easterbrook plots the temperature data from the GISP2 core, as archived <a href="ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt" target="_blank">here</a>. Easterbrook defines “present” as the year 2000. However, the GISP2 “present” follows a common paleoclimate convention and is actually 1950. The first data point in the file is at 95 years BP. This would make 95 years BP 1855 — a full 155 years ago, <strong>long before any other global temperature record shows any modern warming</strong>. In order to make absolutely sure of my dates, I emailed Richard Alley, and he confirmed that the GISP2 “present” is 1950, and that the most recent temperature in the GISP2 series is therefore 1855.</p><p></p><p>This is Easterbrook’s main sleight of hand. He wants to present a regional proxy for temperature from 155 years ago as somehow indicative of present global temperatures. The depths of his misunderstanding are made clear in a response he gave to a request from the German <a href="http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/news-anzeige/2010-wo-steht-es-in-der-liste-der-waermsten-jahre/" target="_blank">EIKE forum</a> to clarify why he was representing 1905 (wrongly, in two senses) as the present. Here’s what he had to say:</p><p></p><p>The contention that the ice core only reaches 1905 is a complete lie (not unusual for AGW people). The top of the core is accurately dated by annual dust layers at 1987. There has been no significant warming from 1987 to the present, so the top of the core is representative of the present day climate in Greenland.</p><p></p><p>Unfortunately for Don, the first data point in the temperature series he’s relying on is not from the “top of the core”, it’s from layers dated to 1855. The reason is straightforward enough — it takes decades for snow to consolidate into ice.</p><p></p><p>And so to an interesting question. What has happened to temperatures at the top of Greenland ice sheet since 1855? <a href="http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/" target="_blank">Jason Box</a> is one of the most prominent scientists working on Greenland and he has a recent paper reconstructing Greenland temperatures for the period 1840-2007 (Box, Jason E., Lei Yang, David H. Bromwich, Le-Sheng Bai, 2009: <em>Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Air Temperature Variability: 1840–2007</em>. <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2816.1" target="_blank">J. Climate, 22, 4029–4049</a>. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2816.1). He was kind enough to supply me with a temperature reconstruction for the GRIP drilling site — 28 km from GISP2. This is what the annual average temperature record looks like (click for bigger version):</p><p></p><p><a href="http://hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/GRIPtempBoxlarge.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.okshooters.com/data/MetaMirrorCache/hot_topic.co.nz_wp_content_uploads_2011_01_GRIPtempBox480.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="_CY_, post: 2906422, member: 7629"] let's drill in a bit shall we? "actual scientific proxy data" [SIZE=6] the Greenland Ice Sheet Project looks to be based on interpolation of ice core data .. first we have the official line from scientist working on said project who of course claim tracking of all sort of climatatic events from the coring samples. then we quickly find all sorts of skeptics who think otherwise .. who is right and who is full of crap .. since I'm pretty sure none of these scientist were around back 10,000+ years ago. they really don't know .. they could be right or not? [/SIZE] [SIZE=4][B][URL='http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/']GISP2 Home Page[/URL][/B][/SIZE] www.[B]gisp2[/B].sr.unh.edu/ University of New Hampshire With the completion of the [I]GISP2[/I] drilling program and a companion European ice coring effort, a new era in paleoenvironmental investigation has been opened. [SIZE=4][B][URL='https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=337']GISP2 temperature data - Skeptical Science[/URL][/B][/SIZE] [URL]https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=337[/URL] Skeptical Science Figure 4 shows temperatures from the [I]GISP2[/I] Greenland ice core. With the exception of a brief warm period about 8,200 years ago, the entire period from 1,500 ... [SIZE=4][B][URL='ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt']GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data[/URL][/B][/SIZE] ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/.../[B]gisp2[/B]/.../[B]gisp2[/B]_temp_accum_a... National Climatic Data Center [I]GISP2[/I] Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series #2004-013. NOAA/NGDC ... ======= [B]What The Science Says:[/B] This argument uses temperatures from the top of the Greenland ice sheet. This data ends in 1855, long before modern global warming began. It also reflects regional Greenland warming, not global warming. [B]Climate Myth: Most of the last 10,000 years were warmer[/B] Even if the warming were as big as the IPCC imagines, it would not be as dangerous as Mr. Brown suggests. After all, recent research suggests that some 9,100 of the past 10,500 years were warmer than the present by up to 3 Celsius degrees: yet here we all are. ([URL='http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/brisbane_floods.pdf']Christopher Monckton[/URL]) This argument is based on the work of Don Easterbrook who relies on temperatures at the top of the Greenland ice sheet as a proxy for global temperatures. That’s a fatal flaw, before we even begin to examine the use of the ice core data. A single regional record cannot stand in for the global record — local variability will be higher than the global, plus we have evidence that Antarctic temperatures swing in the opposite direction to Arctic changes. Richard Alley discussed that [URL='http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/08/richard-alley-on-old-ice-climate-and-co2/']in some detail[/URL] at [I]Dot Earth[/I] last year, and it’s well worth reading his comments. Easterbrook, however, is content to ignore someone who has worked in this field, and relies entirely on Greenland data to make his case. Most of the past 10,000 [years] have been warmer than the present. Figure 4 shows temperatures from the GISP2 Greenland ice core. With the exception of a brief warm period about 8,200 years ago, the entire period from 1,500 to 10,500 years ago was significantly warmer than present. This is Easterbrook’s Fig 4: [IMG]https://www.okshooters.com/data/MetaMirrorCache/hot_topic.co.nz_wp_content_uploads_2011_01_easterbrook_fig41.jpg[/IMG] It’s a graph he’s used before, in various forms, almost certainly copied and altered from the original (click image below to see source: the NOAA web page for Richard Alley’s 2000 paper [I]The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland[/I], though DE credits it as “Modified from Cuffy and Clow, 1997″, misspelling Kurt Cuffey’s name in the process: [URL='http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/'][IMG]https://www.okshooters.com/data/MetaMirrorCache/www.ncdc.noaa.gov_paleo_pubs_alley2000_alley2000.gif[/IMG][/URL] Easterbrook continues: Another graph of temperatures from the Greenland ice core for the past 10,000 years is shown in Figure 5. It shows essentially the same temperatures as Cuffy and Clow (1997) but with somewhat greater detail. What both of these temperature curves show is that virtually all of the past 10,000 years has been warmer than the present. This is his Fig 5: [IMG]https://www.okshooters.com/data/MetaMirrorCache/hot_topic.co.nz_wp_content_uploads_2011_01_easterbrook_fig5.png[/IMG] Easterbrook plots the temperature data from the GISP2 core, as archived [URL='ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt']here[/URL]. Easterbrook defines “present” as the year 2000. However, the GISP2 “present” follows a common paleoclimate convention and is actually 1950. The first data point in the file is at 95 years BP. This would make 95 years BP 1855 — a full 155 years ago, [B]long before any other global temperature record shows any modern warming[/B]. In order to make absolutely sure of my dates, I emailed Richard Alley, and he confirmed that the GISP2 “present” is 1950, and that the most recent temperature in the GISP2 series is therefore 1855. This is Easterbrook’s main sleight of hand. He wants to present a regional proxy for temperature from 155 years ago as somehow indicative of present global temperatures. The depths of his misunderstanding are made clear in a response he gave to a request from the German [URL='http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/news-anzeige/2010-wo-steht-es-in-der-liste-der-waermsten-jahre/']EIKE forum[/URL] to clarify why he was representing 1905 (wrongly, in two senses) as the present. Here’s what he had to say: The contention that the ice core only reaches 1905 is a complete lie (not unusual for AGW people). The top of the core is accurately dated by annual dust layers at 1987. There has been no significant warming from 1987 to the present, so the top of the core is representative of the present day climate in Greenland. Unfortunately for Don, the first data point in the temperature series he’s relying on is not from the “top of the core”, it’s from layers dated to 1855. The reason is straightforward enough — it takes decades for snow to consolidate into ice. And so to an interesting question. What has happened to temperatures at the top of Greenland ice sheet since 1855? [URL='http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/']Jason Box[/URL] is one of the most prominent scientists working on Greenland and he has a recent paper reconstructing Greenland temperatures for the period 1840-2007 (Box, Jason E., Lei Yang, David H. Bromwich, Le-Sheng Bai, 2009: [I]Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Air Temperature Variability: 1840–2007[/I]. [URL='http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2816.1']J. Climate, 22, 4029–4049[/URL]. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2816.1). He was kind enough to supply me with a temperature reconstruction for the GRIP drilling site — 28 km from GISP2. This is what the annual average temperature record looks like (click for bigger version): [URL='http://hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/GRIPtempBoxlarge.png'][IMG]https://www.okshooters.com/data/MetaMirrorCache/hot_topic.co.nz_wp_content_uploads_2011_01_GRIPtempBox480.png[/IMG][/URL] [/QUOTE]
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