Get ready for Sunday&Monday.....

[Mr.Glock]

In the 2009 blizzard I had a 3 foot drift across my whole driveway. NEVER AGAIN I SAID! I bought this 2 stage MOFO soon after, guy at lawn place didn't believe me when I told him what I wanted to order. In 11 years it has never been used once. I figure I can pay the machine off in half a day if we get 10 inches of snow. That said no snow in 11 years. It was the best damn money I ever spent.

i recently bought an enclosed trailer this summer. When I showed up to look at it, as he was opening the rear ramp door he was commenting about a bonus inside. Inside the trailer was a brand new 2 stage snow blower. He said it goes with it! He had just bought it and then was transferred from Michigan to here in Ok 3 years prior. Never needed it and wanted it out of his hair. I have no concrete walks or driveway to use it, that last snow I adjusted the skids to let it run on the packed driveway we have, it is quite a machine and this Okie is no longer a virgin to a Snow Blower! It can blow snow a longggggg ways!

 

[DavidMcmillan]

My parents lived in upstate New York (near the finger lakes) and when my dad retired, they moved to Muskogee. The day the movers arrived, I was there to help them and had a good laugh when they unloaded their BIG snow blower. He never told us how much he sold it for, but I would guess no where what he would have received if he sold in NY. Not a big snow blower market in northeastern OK.

 

[SlugSlinger]

Uuhhhhh.... that would be BAD. No gas means we in some TROUBLE.

I wouldn’t worry about running out of gas at this point. If you saw a map of all the pipelines crossing this country, you would be astonished. We can now move gas from from the largest producing wells in the north east (Marcellus) to Houston or from north west to Oklahoma. The company I work for moves 30% of the natural gas used in the US.
You would see prices skyrocket if we start running “low”.

Just because well heads freeze in one shale gas play, doesn’t mean the others cannot make up for the demand. In fact, gas is so cheap, in the Permian, they flare it at the well head instead of transporting it.

Here’s a shot of all the gas plays.

 

[SlugSlinger]

Natural Gas

• EIA expects that total U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 81.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021, down 1.9% from 2020. The decline in total U.S. consumption reflects less natural gas consumed for electric power as a result of higher natural gas prices compared with last year. In 2021, EIA expects residential natural gas demand to average 12.9 Bcf/d (up 0.2 Bcf/d from 2020) and commercial demand to average 9.1 Bcf/d (up 0.6 Bcf/d from 2020). EIA forecasts industrial consumption will average 23.0 Bcf/d in 2021 (up 0.4 Bcf/d from 2020) as a result of increased manufacturing activity amid a recovering economy. Industrial consumption of 23.0 Bcf/d would be 0.1 Bcf/d below the 2019 level. EIA expects total U.S. natural gas consumption will average 81.0 Bcf/d in 2022.

• In January, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.71 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up from the December average of $2.59/MMBtu. EIA expects Henry Hub spot prices to reach a monthly average of $2.98/MMBtu in February 2021. Higher expected prices in February reflect expectations of continued strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a shrinking surplus of natural gas in storage compared with the five-year (2016–20) average. EIA uses weather forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as an input into the STEO, and the NOAA forecast in this STEO is from late January. More recent forecasts for mid-February weather show cold temperatures could extend across much of the United States, which creates an upside risk to near-term prices in this outlook. EIA expects that Henry Hub spot prices will average $2.95/MMBtu in 2021, which is up from the 2020 average of $2.03/MMBtu. EIA expects that continued growth in LNG exports and in domestic natural gas consumption outside of the electric power sector, as production remains relatively flat, will contribute to Henry Hub spot prices rising to an average of $3.27/MMBtu in 2022.

• U.S. working natural gas in storage ended October at more than 3.9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 5% more than the 2015–19 average and the fourth-highest end-of-October level on record. EIA estimates that inventory withdrawals were 703 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in January, compared with a five-year (2016–20) average January withdrawal of 716 Bcf. The January withdrawals occurred at a lower rate than EIA forecast in last month’s STEO. The lower-than-expected withdrawal is the result of warmer-than-average January temperatures that reduced natural gas use for space heating. However, EIA forecasts that declines in U.S. natural gas production this winter compared with last winter will more than offset the declines in natural gas consumption, which will contribute to natural gas storage returning to levels near the five-year average by the end of winter. Forecast natural gas inventories end March 2021 at 1.8 Tcf, which is about the same as the five-year average.

• EIA forecasts that U.S. production of dry natural gas will average 90.5 Bcf/d in 2021 and 91.0 Bcf/d in 2022, which are down from an average of 91.3 Bcf/d in 2020 and 93.1 Bcf/d in 2019. In the forecast, dry natural gas production remains relatively flat, averaging between 89.8 Bcf/d and 91.0 Bcf/d in every month from February 2021 through July 2022. Flat natural gas production is the result of falling production in several of the smaller natural gas producing regions being offset by growth in other regions, most notably in the Appalachia and Haynesville regions.

• EIA estimates that the United States exported 9.8 Bcf/d of LNG in January amid high spot natural gas prices in Asia. However, foggy conditions and high winds affected export operations at Sabine Pass LNG, Corpus Christi LNG, and Cameron LNG, leading to several weather-related closures and sporadic suspension of piloting services on several days in January. EIA forecasts that U.S. LNG exports will average 8.5 Bcf/d in 2021. In 2022, EIA forecasts LNG exports will average 9.2 Bcf/d, surpassing the amount of natural gas exported via pipeline for the first time.

 

[SlugSlinger]

 

[Shinneryfarmer]

Uuhhhhh.... that would be BAD. No gas means we in some TROUBLE.

We have vast amounts of gas in reserve in this country. Large caverns used by gas companies to store it are usually filled by multiple company's on a allotment basis that they pay a storage fee. Pipelines can get that gas to them when they need it or wish to sell it. But in times like these when production is low and demand high they can use their allotted reserves. Many companies have agreements with others that they will loan or sell them gas in time of need. But if they don't have agreements then that's when the neckbeards take over as in our ammo prices today. Yes we got extra but it is double the price. Most companies are not going to let their customers run out of natural gas even if it is a loss for them. They do not want the bad publicity this will cause. If they can get customers to cut back on usage so they do not get in that situation their going to try.

 

[SoonerP226]

FWIW, ONG hasn't sent out anything about cutting usage.

 

[yukonjack]

I have an aunt who has lived in Alaska since before I was born. When I told her that a friend of mine was looking into a law enforcement job on the North Slope, she told me if folks up there want their vehicles to start in the morning during the winter, they don't turn them off at night.

That's too dang cold for this ol' boy.

I worked for the North Slope Borough police dept back in the early 1980’s. We drove Suburbans for patrol vehicles. They were equipped
with an auto-start feature that monitored engine temps and vehicle interior temps. When it got below the threshold it would automatically start the engine and bring the vehicles up to the specified temp.

All borough owned vehicles had auto-starts. 4 or 5 times a week in the winter we’d get calls to remove drunks from out of those vehicles. Had a sergeant who had a take home vehicle that was notorious for leaving his back passenger doors unlocked. Drunk crawls in, passes out and was trapped. Prisoner cages on the front and back and no door handles.

Cold weather policing in the arctic had its own unique challenges.

 

[1shott]

Heres the email I received

Due to high heating demand in response to the extremely cold temperatures, we are asking our Oklahoma customers to temporarily lower their thermostat settings to help conserve natural gas.

We ask you, if possible, to reduce your thermostat setting to 60-65 degrees during the day when at home – and lower it an additional 5-10 degrees when asleep or away from home – until Friday morning, Feb. 19. This step can help ensure that all customers continue to have gas service to stay warm during the intensely cold weather.



If you experience a loss of gas service, please contact us at 888-876-5786.

We apologize for any inconvenience and thank our customers for all your energy conservation efforts at this challenging time.

 

[MacFromOK]

We have one Dearborn heater (propane) in the living room, which more/less heats most of the house. I've been keeping the temp around 68-69 degrees, which is fine for me.

However... I have to keep Sweetie's room about 80 degrees, or her hands, arms, and legs get really cold. And that's literally 80 degrees, because at 77-78 she gets cold. So she has an electric heater.

Not sure what I'll do if the power goes out, but probably crank up the Dearborn and pile a bunch of blankets on her.

Hopefully, the power stays on...