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The Water Cooler
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The official " will israel do it " discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="wylekyote" data-source="post: 1893665" data-attributes="member: 4455"><p>I think you're right about the "no second chance" for Israel. Israel only has the resources for a single, fairly limited, offensive air strike against Iran's nuclear targets. Israel isn't going to be able to walk through the back door unnoticed like the last time when they destroyed the Osirak reactor in Iraq, so they're going to have to send that many more planes (most of which will require refueling in the air) in order to make sure their bombs make it past enemy fighters/AAA and to the targeted facilities. If they fail, it's very possible that either a) Israel gets wiped offed the map, b) WWIII, c) Both <img src="/images/smilies/shocked.gif" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":shocked:" title="Shocked :shocked:" data-shortname=":shocked:" /></p><p></p><p>The strike on the Osirak facility in Iraq was done by 14 Israeli planes (6 F15's as escorts and 8 F16's carrying bombs, if I remember right) but they were able to 'trick' both the Jordanian and Saudi radar operators, so they didn't encounter any resistance. Iran also has a pretty formidable air defense system. I would <em>guess</em> the US has the technology at its disposal to defeat a lot of the Iranian systems, or if nothing else we probably have the sheer depth of resources to overwhelm Iran (as long as Iran's friends don't show up! Let's all just pray that by some miracle the US doesn't get involved). Israel, on the other hand, just doesn't have the equipment (unless they have some damn good ECM's they feel like "testing"). Iran has several good, phased array radar (ie, capable of intercepting multiple precision guided munitions, ICBM's, and, of course, planes, simultaneously) missile defense systems at it's disposal. The "Iranian designed" Mersad system, Russian Tor's and S-300's are the newest in Iran's arsenal. Even if Israeli planes/munitions have capable electronic countermeasures, Iran has the resources to shoot 2-3+ missiles at every plane Israel sends at them. Israel is going to take the blame for attacking (if they choose to do so) regardless of the outcome, and the world is undoubtedly going to be focused on Israel for some time afterwards. If Iran manages to protect their key nuclear assets, which I think we can probably assume are deep inside a mountain at their Fordow nuclear facility, then Israel is kinda screwed at that point.</p><p></p><p>That's just my 2 cents.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="wylekyote, post: 1893665, member: 4455"] I think you're right about the "no second chance" for Israel. Israel only has the resources for a single, fairly limited, offensive air strike against Iran's nuclear targets. Israel isn't going to be able to walk through the back door unnoticed like the last time when they destroyed the Osirak reactor in Iraq, so they're going to have to send that many more planes (most of which will require refueling in the air) in order to make sure their bombs make it past enemy fighters/AAA and to the targeted facilities. If they fail, it's very possible that either a) Israel gets wiped offed the map, b) WWIII, c) Both :shocked: The strike on the Osirak facility in Iraq was done by 14 Israeli planes (6 F15's as escorts and 8 F16's carrying bombs, if I remember right) but they were able to 'trick' both the Jordanian and Saudi radar operators, so they didn't encounter any resistance. Iran also has a pretty formidable air defense system. I would [I]guess[/I] the US has the technology at its disposal to defeat a lot of the Iranian systems, or if nothing else we probably have the sheer depth of resources to overwhelm Iran (as long as Iran's friends don't show up! Let's all just pray that by some miracle the US doesn't get involved). Israel, on the other hand, just doesn't have the equipment (unless they have some damn good ECM's they feel like "testing"). Iran has several good, phased array radar (ie, capable of intercepting multiple precision guided munitions, ICBM's, and, of course, planes, simultaneously) missile defense systems at it's disposal. The "Iranian designed" Mersad system, Russian Tor's and S-300's are the newest in Iran's arsenal. Even if Israeli planes/munitions have capable electronic countermeasures, Iran has the resources to shoot 2-3+ missiles at every plane Israel sends at them. Israel is going to take the blame for attacking (if they choose to do so) regardless of the outcome, and the world is undoubtedly going to be focused on Israel for some time afterwards. If Iran manages to protect their key nuclear assets, which I think we can probably assume are deep inside a mountain at their Fordow nuclear facility, then Israel is kinda screwed at that point. That's just my 2 cents. [/QUOTE]
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