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  1. #1

    Default Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    So you smart guys out there that know how to dig this kind of thing up.....Someone tell me which has the higher odds: My house being broken into or My house being hit by a tornado.

    I've got a good conversation going with some folks and the point I'm trying to make is why prepare for your house to be hit by a tornado and choose not to prepare for your house to be broke into. My point is strengthened even further if it's a fact that there is a higher probability that your house is going to be broke into versus it being hit by a tornado. As you can imagine the undertones of my conversations are related to one protecting themselves with a firearm.

    I don't know which is more likely to happen, but my point is why choose to prepare for one hazard while choosing to ignore another.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    I dont know what the annual statistics would show, but why would someone not be prepared for multiple possibilities?

  3. #3

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    Well I have been home 3 times when my house was broken in to, but I have never been home when a tornado hit. The kicker is I lived in low crime areas all 3 times but in high tornado areas.
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  4. #4

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    Based on some basic data pulled from across the web ( here, here, and here, to name a few sources) it's pretty easy to see from simple numbers of incident occurences that the likelihood of being a victim of a property crime or violent personal crime is statistically higher.

    In regards to tornadoes
    The experts at the National Severe Storms Laboratory have computed that the chance of being struck by a tornado at any given point in Oklahoma is once in about 1,400 years – and you'd have to wait around even longer (around 4,000 years) for a chance of being struck by a significant (F2+) tornado. Whereas, the chances of a Category 1 (75+ mph) hurricane to strike a given point along the gulf or Atlantic coasts is once every 10 years.
    There are roughly 1300 tornadoes on average that strike the US annually. Average that against the population, and it becomes plain the chances are low (although arguably higher here in OK).

    Whereas your chances of being the victim of a property crime in Oklahoma are about 1 in 30 according to a couple different sources I found, and about 1 in 220 of being the victim of a violent crime. Take a look at the last part of this graphic and you can get a quick idea of your chances of being the victim of a burglary:




    There are LOTS of other resources out there that could be used to draw comparisons. I think it's safe to conclude your chances of being the victim of any type of crime is much higher than the odds of your house being struck by a tornado.
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  5. #5
    Patron Danny Tanner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by Remington View Post
    So you smart guys out there that know how to dig this kind of thing up.....Someone tell me which has the higher odds: My house being broken into or My house being hit by a tornado.

    I've got a good conversation going with some folks and the point I'm trying to make is why prepare for your house to be hit by a tornado and choose not to prepare for your house to be broke into. My point is strengthened even further if it's a fact that there is a higher probability that your house is going to be broke into versus it being hit by a tornado. As you can imagine the undertones of my conversations are related to one protecting themselves with a firearm.

    I don't know which is more likely to happen, but my point is why choose to prepare for one hazard while choosing to ignore another.
    The odds are greatly in your favor to never be in an auto accident, yet [even without the law requiring us to do so] we buckle up every time we pull out of the driveway.

    Shelters, firearms, and seatbelts can all be lumped into that same generic category. They're items you hope like hell you'll never have to use, but if that time comes, you'll be damn sure glad you had them.
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  6. #6

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    And one other factor is that most of the time you will have at least some warning that a tornado is coming or could be coming. Everything from just the general weather conditions and time of year to news casts to sirens going off. And now days things like alarm systems (my home alarm beeps when we are under warning) to there being an app for that.

    As far as crime, there generally isn't much if any advanced warning.

  7. #7
    Patron BikerHT's Avatar
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    Default Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by Jon3830 View Post
    Well I have been home 3 times when my house was broken in to, but I have never been home when a tornado hit. The kicker is I lived in low crime areas all 3 times but in high tornado areas.
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  8. #8

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by Jace View Post
    I dont know what the annual statistics would show, but why would someone not be prepared for multiple possibilities?
    My point exactly. I was talking with a guy at work about home invasions and violent crime and he said "he chooses not to live in the mindset of fear"....I looked at him odd and said "I choose not to live in denial" So it got me thinking....thus my post.

    My curiosity was peaked in these conversations as to why some people choose not prepare for violent crime or home invasions, but they will for tornados or other type situations which may have a lower probability of happening. Is it the fear of firearms? Is it the belief that they have to use a firearm to protect themselves. I just find it odd. AT LEAST DO SOEMTHING.....and hiding in a corner doesn't count. There are many non-lethal methods for protecting one's self, but doing nothing will save nothing.

    Now the hard core anti-gun goobers are a lost cause, probably no chance of convincing them, but I was hoping some statistics like I mentioned above would strengthen my debate in these types of conversations for people who want to have honest dialogue.
    Last edited by Remington; 02-12-2013 at 08:28 AM.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by Cavagan View Post
    Based on some basic data pulled from across the web ( here, here, and here, to name a few sources) it's pretty easy to see from simple numbers of incident occurences that the likelihood of being a victim of a property crime or violent personal crime is statistically higher.

    In regards to tornadoes

    There are roughly 1300 tornadoes on average that strike the US annually. Average that against the population, and it becomes plain the chances are low (although arguably higher here in OK).

    Whereas your chances of being the victim of a property crime in Oklahoma are about 1 in 30 according to a couple different sources I found, and about 1 in 220 of being the victim of a violent crime. Take a look at the last part of this graphic and you can get a quick idea of your chances of being the victim of a burglary:




    There are LOTS of other resources out there that could be used to draw comparisons. I think it's safe to conclude your chances of being the victim of any type of crime is much higher than the odds of your house being struck by a tornado.
    Thank you for all the info. There's a lot there and I appreciate your time pulling it all together.

  10. #10

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    Well no tornadoes but they just tried a home evasion!
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  11. #11

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Tanner View Post
    The odds are greatly in your favor to never be in an auto accident, yet [even without the law requiring us to do so] we buckle up every time we pull out of the driveway.

    Shelters, firearms, and seatbelts can all be lumped into that same generic category. They're items you hope like hell you'll never have to use, but if that time comes, you'll be damn sure glad you had them.
    IIRC there's a 30% or so chance of a serious car accident in your lifetime.

    Part of the issue here is that you face a low-risk situation repeatedly. Human reaction to low-risk scenarios are interesting.
    Two good reads by Jared Diamond on reducing risks:
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  12. #12

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    It is a great question.

    I recall a meteorologist from OU stating, during a lecture on tornadoes, that a person would have to stand in one spot in Oklahoma for 2,000 years in order to be hit by one.

    If correct, it means that the chances of being hit by a tornado each year is 1 / 2000 = 0.0005.... or 0.05% (5 one-hundredths of a percent)


    A total of 29,579 residential burglaries in Oklahoma were reported in 2011. See 3-15 in http://www.ok.gov/osbi/documents/201...l%20Report.pdf

    There 1,432,735 households in Oklahoma. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/40000.html

    29579 burglaries per year / 1432735 households = 0.0206....so there is a 2.06% chance of being burglarized in a year.

    2.06/0.05 = 41.2......A person is 40 times more likely to have a break-in than to be hit by a tornado in Oklahoma.

    Burglaries are common and they don't usually make compelling news stories. So our perceptions are skewed.
    Last edited by Dale00; 02-12-2013 at 11:35 AM.
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  13. #13

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    I guess I squew the odds a little, I have been in an F5 tornado but never an attempt of a forced entry. I am prepaired for both hope I just didn't jink myself
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  14. #14

    Default Re: Breaking & Entering vs Being Hit By Tornado Statistics

    I agree that home invasions are more likely. However, my home and my wife's (we were not married at the time they were our childhood homes) were hit by a tornado in western Oklahoma in 2001 and our house got hit this past April in Mustang. I am prepared for both scenarios.

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