Is Another Ammo Shortage Coming?

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retrieverman

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Hornady had a kaboom.

Vista Outdooors (cci, speer, remington etc) got bought by a Czech company.

Lake City is no longer doing non- government sales.

I saw this online today…
"Dear Customers of KIR Ammo:

Several events over the past week have contributed to a significantly tumultuous time in the ammo industry. I will address these as succinctly and objectively as possible to give you information you can use and share to make informed decisions about ammo purchases in the coming months.

1) The Lake City Army Ammunition Plant is the single largest producer of rifle ammunition for the U.S. military and is operated by Winchester-Olin. Winchester holds the contract to run the plant and is thereby granted permission to sell some of the ammo that is produced there - this includes 5.56x45mm M193 and M855, the most popular rifle cartridges in America. On Thursday last week, we were informed that demand from the military has overridden all existing commercial orders, and that Lake City has temporarily suspended all production for the civilian market. When will this end? We do not know, but an educated guess might be a few weeks to a couple months - however I could be wrong; we can't tell with certainty. This move has already tightened supply and demand has soared for many popular calibers including, but not limited to: 5.56x45mm NATO, .223 Rem, 9mm, 7.62x39mm, and .308 Win. We have secured a temporary supply of 5.56 FMJ which will be arriving throughout this coming week, but we do not know how long it will be available on the open market. I will share more information as I learn it.

2) On Friday morning (10/13), Hornady experienced a fatal explosion at one of its manufacturing plants in Wood River, NE. Sadly, one woman died, and the cause of the explosion has not been determined. Reports state the explosion occurred at a chemical compound building which we can safely assume manufactures and stores powder and/or coatings for Hornady ammo. Hornady has been tight lipped about what happened (rightfully so after such a tragic event) and we do not know how this will affect production, but it would make sense that this will tighten supply on Hornady products. Which specific products, we cannot say; it may be all of them, or just a subset (think Superformance hunting rounds vs. Frontier that use different powders).

3) The recent conflict in the Middle East has further tightened supply on ammunition and firearms from IWI (Israel Military Industries). These include their popular Razor Core line of 5.56 and various firearms. Mass shipments of ammunition are confirmed to have been delivered from the U.S. to meet demand. This ties into the Lake City's restriction on commercial sales. The continuing conflict in Ukraine has tightened supply around .338 Lapua Mag, 7.62x39mm, 5.45x39mm, 5.56x45mm, and other popular calibers. I do not anticipate Covid-type levels of inflation, but with all of these factors combined, we are inching in that direction.

4) KIR Ammo is the #1 distributor of Norma Ammunition products in the State of Texas, so we keep in close communication with their U.S. HQ in Savannah, GA. As of Thursday last week, Norma is completely sold out of all major FMJ calibers mentioned above. They are not sure when the next run of 5.56x45mm, 7.62x39mm, or 9mm will happen, but they are completely out of that ammo for now. We were able to secure (only!) two pallets of 5.56x45mm which will be delivered sometime in the next week or two. This gives you an idea on how strong demand has gotten in a very short period of time. Norma is not the only manufacturer affected by this supply constriction.

5) Black Hills Ammunition, famed manufacturer of the 5.56x45mm MK262 MOD 1-C cartridge, will likely halt commercial sales of that particular variation as well. They did not make any formal announcements, but it is a safe guess that we won't be seeing that round available for some time. We were lucky enough to receive half a pallet early last week before the preceding events transpired.

Here at KIR Ammo, we are experiencing record levels of demand and will continue to ship all of your orders in a timely manner without sacrificing service and quality. We always try our best to get back to each and every one of you when you have questions, but please bear with us as right now we are "all-hands-on-deck" in the warehouse, printing, picking, packing, and shipping!

Thank you from myself and the team here at KIR for your continued support of our family-owned business.

Respectfully,

V. Campbell
Owner - KIR Ammo
 

Jason Freeland

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Yes, I've been stocking up lately because I was expecting one. Government contracts have dried up a lot of the normal channels and then Gaza happened and caused panic buying. Ammo has jumped considerably in the last week. Only NATO caliber that hasn't jumped a lot is 9mm and that won't last long as stock runs out. It has jumped about $20-$30 a case, just not as much as 5.56.

Edit: Even the brass 7.62x39 I've been buying jumped $100 in the last week.
 

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