Ok, that's it. I just saw the stupidest thing ever!

[doctorjj]

Please don't take this as me disagreeing with your point entirely --- but one important consideration for the early models compared to later models is that new evidence gets factored in as time goes on. It's entirely possible that early models, based on early data, were skewed to a degree by the limited sample size and inherent need to make educated guesses. In retrospect it's easy to say they were wrong and second guess them, but that doesn't mean that at the time they were not as accurate as possible.

Plenty of times in history that same 20/20 can be applied, more than just COVID in 2020.

Totally agree. But this certainly hasn’t behaved like we thought it would. The models were orders of magnitude from being close. The study out of Israel showing it peak at 6 weeks and decline by 8 weeks regardless of any measures taken or not taken is quite interesting.