Political Junkies: Splain to me how Republicans ever win enough elecotral votes again

[RidgeHunter]

I'm not a smart man. The few brain cells I have left don't get along that well.

So the other day something hit me: the electoral college. Ya know, the thing that actually elects the president that is almost never talked about in the news until election night.

In 2012 Obama got 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206. This year one of our goobers only needs 270 electoral votes to win the white house. That's 126 votes less than a Democrat got in 2012. Quite a big margin of error. Probably big enough to make up for all the lefties like me who hate Hillary and would probably stay home if she's on the ticket. Eh, that won't matter, she'll pull the menopausal bitty vote like it's never been pulled.

And is it just me or am I the only one that thinks Romany will go down as having gotten more votes, popular and electoral, than anyone on the 2016 field? I guess that's not even important to this discussion, but that's my gut feeling.

In 2008 Obama pulled 365 to McCain's 173. Now that is an ass whopping.

The odds seem really low for a Republican winning to me, but math is my biggest weakness. I started googling this and apparently I'm not the only one who thinks so. In fact some are going as far as to say it is mathematically impossible for a Republican to ever win the white house again.

Thoughts? Anyone smarter than me see something I'm missing?

 

[Hobbes]

Voter ID laws, loooong lines at the polls in the right neighborhoods.
It's a long shot but better than nothing.

 

[donner]

It'll come down to certain swing states, which may have a lot to do with the candidates who are nominated.

Kasich, in theory, could put Ohio more into play, just as Rubio/Jeb could potentially boost the GOP chances in Florida.

Places like Virginia, Colorado and North Carolina will be interesting.

This article from Politico has a map which shows which states might be in play, or lean certain ways.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/2016-predictions-117554

Again, much will come down to candidates.

 

[RidgeHunter]

Romney could have won Florida, Ohio AND Virginia in 2012 and still lost the election. No matter how you paint the swing states, if you stay realistic, it sure seems the GOP has a tall order to get 270 votes this year. A mighty tall order.

I just don't see it. If Kasich, Rubio and Jeb are anything more than distant memories in a few weeks I'll be as surprised as a dog caught suckin' eggs.

This is a fun site where you can play around with the different votes to basically draw paths to the whitehouse and see how plausible they are.

http://www.270towin.com/

 

[Glocktogo]

This is why I LOL every time I hear liberals whine about the GOP gerrymandering epidemic.

 

[donner]

This is why I LOL every time I hear liberals whine about the GOP gerrymandering epidemic.

they aren't wrong on the state level. Congressional elections, especially. Plus, the states where the GOP legislatures have redrawn districts are often red states anyway, which means it wouldn't likely change the president math.

Short of apportioning electoral votes, i don't know if i've heard of a way of gerrymandering your way so that a state can swing from one side to the other since isolating voting interest groups (majority minority districts) doesn't change a state's popular vote.

 

[RickN]

This thread popped up under Similar threads.

 

[Poke78]

This thread popped up under Similar threads.

LMAO - the Wayback Machine strikes again! Poor old Ridge Hunter...11/8/16 rises up again to rob some more of his brain cells and torture his lefty soul...

 

[RickN]

LMAO - the Wayback Machine strikes again! Poor old Ridge Hunter...11/8/16 rises up again to rob some more of his brain cells and torture his lefty soul...

I just think it is funny how many people said Republicans would never win the Whitehouse again. Ole Ridge was far from the only one, just that his thread popped up. I kept saying it was an 8 year cycle except for rare exceptions, just like the Democrats will probably win back the House next year if things go as normal.

 

[Dave70968]

I just think it is funny how many people said Republicans would never win the Whitehouse again.

Arguably, they haven't.