Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Unexpectedly Surges to 13-Year High

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SlugSlinger

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Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Unexpectedly Surges to 13-Year High
More stories by Agnel PhilipOctober 13, 2017, 9:00 AM CDT
U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly surged to a 13-year high as Americans’ perceptions of the economy and their own finances rebounded following several major hurricanes, a University of Michigan survey showed Friday.

Key Takeaways
The jump in sentiment, which was greater than any analyst had projected, may reflect several trends: falling gasoline prices following a hurricane-related spike; repeated record highs for the stock market; a 16-year low in unemployment; and post-storm recovery efforts driving a rebound in economic growth.

The advance in the main gauge spanned age and income subgroups as well as partisan views, according to the report. Almost six out of every 10 consumers thought the economy had recently improved in early October, the university said.

Not all measures in the survey showed big gains: the share of consumers reporting improved finances held steady at about half, while the proportion expecting gains in their financial situation fell slightly to 40 percent.

Official’s Views
“While the early October surge indicates greater optimism about the future course of the economy, it also reflects an unmistakable sense among consumers that economic prospects are now about as good as could be expected,” Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement. “Indeed, nothing in the latest survey indicates that consumers anticipate an economic downturn anytime soon -- which contrarians may consider a clear warning sign of trouble ahead.”

Other Details
  • 83 percent of respondents saw buying conditions for household durables as favorable, most in more than a decade; positive vehicle-buying attitudes at 75 percent, highest since 2004
  • Consumers saw inflation rate in the next year at 2.3 percent after 2.7 percent the prior month
  • Inflation rate over next five to 10 years seen at 2.4 percent after 2.5 percent in September
 

davek

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I'm really confused because if you follow the More stories from Agnel Philip link in the original post there is another story dated Oct 12, 2017 with a title "U.S. Consumer Comfort Drops to an 11-Week Low".
I suppose that makes for balanced reporting.
 

Biggsly

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I'm really confused because if you follow the More stories from Agnel Philip link in the original post there is another story dated Oct 12, 2017 with a title "U.S. Consumer Comfort Drops to an 11-Week Low".
I suppose that makes for balanced reporting.
That one week was Trump.

The good all goes to Obama-bin-lyin.
 

C_Hallbert

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Hey, I'm a consumer and I feel very comfortable! (Eh - What does feeling comfortable have to do with the economy?)

Woody

The Consumer Comfort Composite Index or 3CI is a Statistical Tool created to help evaluate the viability of the Stock Market. It Varies INVERSELY with the NASDAQ and Dow Jones. Therefore, as Consumer Comfort DROPS, the Economy IMPROVES. The 3CI is primarily used by Politically Motivated Economic Experts to make good news appear bad.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

davek

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I don't see where it's tied to any indexes.
I don't give much weight to the value of anything derived from telephone polls, I call "Bloomberg Bull***"

Definition of 'Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index'
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index measures Americans' perceptions on three important variables: the state of the economy, personal finances and whether it's a good time to buy needed goods or services. A new index reading is generated every week, making it a timely sentiment gauge. The responses are broken down by participants' sex, age, income level, race, region of residence, political affiliation, marital and employment status, giving a more detailed picture of what is driving changes in confidence. The data's history goes back to 1985.

The index, produced by Langer Research Associates in New York, is derived from telephone interviews with a random sample of about 250 consumers a week aged 18 or over, and is based on a four-week moving average of 1,000 responses. The percentage of households with negative views on the economy, personal finances and buying climate is subtracted from the share with positive outlooks and the difference is divided by 3. The results can range from 100, indicating every participant in the survey had a positive response to all three components, to minus 100, signaling all views were negative. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

This index is made available weekly on Thursdays at 9:45 AM ET.

The UofM Consumer information survey has some other interesting docs, including https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=58802 on the effects of partisanship on the survey.
There is also this link to more information about past performance of the survey https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24774 which seems to indicate a pretty good predictive record. Seems like not bull****
 

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