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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
446 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
446 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 8 PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Critical.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 8 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NE OK along/north of I-44.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 8 PM.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 8 PM.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 6 PM.
DISCUSSION...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to rapidly
sweep across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening
into the overnight hours. Wide swaths of damaging winds of 60 to
70 mph with locally higher gusts are the main threat, especially
along and north of I-44. Given the very strong low-level shear
that will be present, there will be some chance for tornadoes to
spin-up on the leading edge of the squall line, especially with
any portions of the line that can bow or surge to the northeast.
This tornado threat will be greatest roughly from I-44 northward
as well. Although storms should begin to weaken as the main
convective line moves into northwest Arkansas around midnight, a
few storms could still produce locally damaging winds or possibly
a spin-up tornado on the leading edge of the line.
Outside of the storms, a strong gradient wind is forecast as low
pressure strengthens over the Plains. Wind gusts between 40 and
50 mph will be possible at times this evening into the overnight
hours.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty winds will develop in the wake of the storm system with
strong winds daily through early next week. Fire weather concerns
may increase with the persistent windy conditions.
Another strong storm system will shift into the southern Plains
Thursday into Friday with rain chances increasing, especially
across far southeast Oklahoma. Precipitation could transition to
a wintry mix Thursday night into Friday morning. Gusty winds will
also be likely with this system.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers and first responders may need to respond to
thunderstorm wind damage or other severe weather impacts from
this storm system. Watches and warnings will likely be
required this evening into the overnight hours.
weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
446 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
446 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 8 PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Critical.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 8 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NE OK along/north of I-44.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 8 PM.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 8 PM.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 6 PM.
DISCUSSION...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to rapidly
sweep across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening
into the overnight hours. Wide swaths of damaging winds of 60 to
70 mph with locally higher gusts are the main threat, especially
along and north of I-44. Given the very strong low-level shear
that will be present, there will be some chance for tornadoes to
spin-up on the leading edge of the squall line, especially with
any portions of the line that can bow or surge to the northeast.
This tornado threat will be greatest roughly from I-44 northward
as well. Although storms should begin to weaken as the main
convective line moves into northwest Arkansas around midnight, a
few storms could still produce locally damaging winds or possibly
a spin-up tornado on the leading edge of the line.
Outside of the storms, a strong gradient wind is forecast as low
pressure strengthens over the Plains. Wind gusts between 40 and
50 mph will be possible at times this evening into the overnight
hours.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty winds will develop in the wake of the storm system with
strong winds daily through early next week. Fire weather concerns
may increase with the persistent windy conditions.
Another strong storm system will shift into the southern Plains
Thursday into Friday with rain chances increasing, especially
across far southeast Oklahoma. Precipitation could transition to
a wintry mix Thursday night into Friday morning. Gusty winds will
also be likely with this system.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers and first responders may need to respond to
thunderstorm wind damage or other severe weather impacts from
this storm system. Watches and warnings will likely be
required this evening into the overnight hours.
weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
46 and heavy fog here this morning, have warned wife to keep a eye on the weather this evening since she will be in Norman today and leaving around 9 pm tonight to drive back. May have to pay for a motel for her to stay in for the night instead of having her and a youngun on the road in it.
You guys are always so rough on him and Payne.
It's a wonder to me that people can live in oklahoma and NOT check the weather anytime there are heavy clouds or rain going on.
I check the weather everytime i stick my head out the door and look around, have had to work out in all kinds of weather for 30+ years i dont get excited about any of it anymore just dress accordingly to what my head tells me its doing at the time i walk out.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and embedded
swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph, centered on
parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Embedded tornadoes are
anticipated as well, with the greatest potential for strong
(EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest Oklahoma this evening.
...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...
Just-in-time moisture return from the western Gulf is still
anticipated ahead of a powerful shortwave trough ejecting from the
Southwest to the Lower MO Valley. 60+ F surface dew points remain
confined from the Piney Woods of east TX to the Concho Valley and
Edwards Plateau of west TX as of 16Z. Guidance continues to differ
with the northern extent of this richer moisture by evening in KS/OK
beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Widespread cloudiness is also
evident over much of the southern Great Plains, although clearing
should occur from west to east across the High Plains. The net
result should be a narrow plume of surface-based instability along
the dryline from southwest KS to west TX between 21-00Z.
Scattered convection will break out after 21Z along the dryline and
become supercellular towards 00Z given very favorably enlarged low
to mid-level hodographs. Further moistening into the evening should
result in the most favorable potential for supercell tornadoes in
southwest OK between 00-03Z, in addition to very large hail.
Convection will likely grow quickly upscale into a solid QLCS,
accelerating east-northeast with embedded supercells and
mesovortices. Extreme low-level shear profiles in conjunction with
strengthening of 700-mb winds to around 90 kts behind the line
should result in widespread severe wind gusts. Embedded swaths of
80-110 mph winds both straightline and rotating are likely, with
stronger speeds into the EF2 range possible, until the QLCS outpaces
the richer moisture in the OK/KS/MO border area overnight. Scattered
damaging winds from strong to severe gusts may linger through the
early morning across MO towards the Mid-MS Valley, despite little to
no buoyancy, given the intense low-level wind fields
I can’t recall a derecho event forecast but I do know those cause more damage over a wider area than a typical tornado. I experienced one in 1995 in OKC.
