Official OSA COVID-19/Corona Virus Thread

[Glocktogo]

You can't even compare our response to Italy's and South Korea's, yet that's all the media wants to do because it suits their "Orange Man Bad" narrative. They want to pretend we're as bad as Italy and nowhere near as good as South Korea.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

These are current numbers updated in real time. Pay particular attention to the numbers in red.

Country,
Other Total
Cases New
Cases Total
Deaths New
Deaths Total
Recovered Active
Cases Serious,
Critical Tot Cases/
1M pop Tot Deaths/
1M pop
USA 82,178 +13,967 1,177 +150 1,864 79,137 2,112 248 4
China 81,285 +67 3,287 +6 74,051 3,947 1,235 56 2
Italy 80,589 +6,203 8,215 +712 10,361 62,013 3,612 1,333 136
Spain 56,347 +6,832 4,154 +507 7,015 45,178 3,166 1,205 89
Germany 43,646 +6,323 262 +56 5,673 37,711 23 521 3
Iran 29,406 +2,389 2,234 +157 10,457 16,715 2,746 350 27
France 29,155 +3,922 1,696 +365 4,948 22,511 3,375 447 26
Switzerland 11,811 +914 191 +38 131 11,489 141 1,365 22
UK 11,658 +2,129 578 +115 135 10,945 163 172 9
S. Korea 9,241 +104 131 +5 4,144 4,966 59 180 3

Why the numbers in red? Because the larger number on each line is the total number of confirmed cases PER 1M POPULATION and the smaller number is the total number of deaths PER 1M POPULATION.

So only 248 out every million Americans have it and only 4 out of every million have died. South Korea's model numbers are 180 and three, which means we're not all that far out from them. Meanwhile Italy is the undisputed death dealer where you're almost 5 1/2 times more likely to catch it and a whopping 34 times more likely to die.

We'd basically have to stop combating the virus to catch up with Italy. Yes you're 37% more likely to catch it here than SK and 33% more likely to die, but the differences in our societies mean we're basically covering the spread on the freedoms, openness and diversity of our society.

Tl;Dr: Stop pretending the sky is falling. Yes we should take it seriously and yes we should take preventative measures, but no we shouldn't be forecasting doom.

 

[dennishoddy]

Told people this would get real, really quickly.

Everyone wanted to stick to normalcy bias.

People die in the ER waiting room every day of different circumstances. Your point is?

 

[dennishoddy]

We would have never had the problems we are having now, as every state in the union would have had full travel restrictions, no commuting for leisure for 6 months, that allows contact tracing to occur, and to quarantine the infected and asymptomatic carriers.

Nobody in OK needs to go to Florida for fun right now. If it isn't agriculture or manufacturing medical equipment, it probably isn't necessary. Defense Production Act ripcord would have been pulled in February. Stafford Act March 1st.

We are in this for the long haul now though, normalcy won't just return, because if we do that, the virus will rear it's ugly head again and again, until it kills large percentages of the population.

There is no "herd immunity".

Why should the Stafford Act have been enacted at all? Companies all over the US have retooled on their own without government intervention to manufacture PPE's, Respirators, Gloves, and all sorts of Medical equipment.
Trump stated today that they have not had to use it in his daily report.
Companies have retooled because this is America, and this is what Americans do when others are at risk. This great country has a history of doing this since 1776.
Trump announced travel restrictions in January with dimocrats calling him unamerican for doing so because open borders are a plank in the dims platform.
You don't hear a single dimocrat advocating open borders right now.
You keep quoting Italian Doctors and Scientist as a basis for your unintelligent rants without doing your homework.
I'll help you out here.
Why was Italy a hotbed of Covid-19? Its because China has been quietly buying up Italian companies so their products bring more money on the international market. Made in Italy, vs made in China makes a difference financially.
Over 300,000 chinese citizens have been brought into northern Italy to man these factories.
Some 200 Italian business are now controlled by Chinese owners (not including the ones owned by Chinese living in Italy), according to La Repubblica, while China’s central bank holds stakes in several Italian blue chips like Fiat, Telecom Italia, Generali, and Eni, The Ferretti yachts Group, Miss Sixty, Cerruti, a luxury fashion brand, Benelli Motorcycles, among others, and the list goes on.
Two weeks from the peak of the Italian Covid-19 virus infection, unfettered air transportation between China and Italy was still going on.
Guess where the epicenter was? I'll help you out here, it was in Northern Italy where most of the Chinese manufacturing and chinese employees are. Did the chinese help spread it because they were asymptomatic? I haven't found that yet, but I did find that the Italian Doctors and Scientists have discovered they made some huge mistakes in their reporting, and assessment of the virus in their country.

When stratified by age-group, death rates of people 1 to 69 years in Italy and China look similar, "but rates are higher in Italy among individuals aged 70 years or older, and in particular among those aged 80 years or older," the authors wrote. "This difference is difficult to explain."

COVID-19 case distributions are also different, with 37.6% of cases in people 70 years and older in Italy, as opposed to 11.9% in China. Also, 687 of Italy's cases were in people 90 years and older, who have a very high death rate, in this case, 22.7%. China didn't report data on people in this age-group, the authors said.

The doctors noted that a report from the World Health Organization-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Mortality on 2,114 of 55,924 coronavirus-related deaths in China reported a death rate of 21.9% in people 80 years and older (compared with 20.2% in this age-group in Italy).

Italy could also have overestimated COVID-19–related deaths because of the different way its officials define it, classifying the death of anyone who tested positive for the disease as related to the coronavirus, regardless of whether they had underlying illnesses that could have independently led to death.

A chart review of 355 COVID-19 patients who died in Italy revealed a high percentage with underlying diseases that could have increased their risk of death independently of the infection, the authors said.

The mean age of the patient subsample was 79.5 years (standard deviation [SD], 8.1), of whom, only 601 (30.0%) were women. Of all patients who died, 117 (30%) had ischemic heart disease, 126 (35.5%) had diabetes, 72 (20.3%) had cancer, 87 (24.5%) had atrial fibrillation, 24 (6.8%) had dementia, and 34 (9.6%) had had a stroke.

The mean number of comorbidities was 2.7 (standard deviation, 1.6). Only 3 patients (0.8%) had no underlying diseases, 89 (25.1%) had one, 91 (25.6%) had two, and 172 (48.5%) had three or more.

A change in strategy on Feb 25 that limited testing to patients who had severe signs and symptoms also resulted in a 19.3% positive rate (21,157 of 109,170 tested as of Mar 14) and an apparent increase in the death rate—from 3.1% on Feb 24 to 7.2% on Mar 17—because patients with milder illness were no longer tested, the doctors said.

 

[dennishoddy]

According to the Johns Hopkins site, the US is now less than 1,000 confirmed cases behind Italy and less than 2,000 cases behind China. Unfortunately, I think we are about to become the world's hot spot for the virus.

By numbers only, not by population.

 

[dennishoddy]

These projections will play out here. By april 6th should see 2-3,000 deaths.

You were saying hundreds of thousands just a couple of weeks ago by that date.

 

[OKCHunter]

By numbers only, not by population.

Except that China has 1.4 B people; the US has 350 M people. Although, I don't really believe the numbers coming out of China.

 

[Michael Armstrong]

My hospital did an interview with the local newspaper. They said any employee with recent travel history can't work for 14 days. Which is a complete lie. Not sure if they want to look good or if they just have no idea how things work

 

[ratski]

My hospital did an interview with the local newspaper. They said any employee with recent travel history can't work for 14 days. Which is a complete lie. Not sure if they want to look good or if they just have no idea how things work

Not a complete lie.
First it depends on policy
Second it also depends on whether they were tested or not.
Once tested, a patient is "required" to stay in quarantine for either 14 days or until their results come back.
One of my staff was tested last Thursday.
Didn't have classic symptoms but because she "thought" she may have been around a positive person (cruise ship passenger) they tested her and said "quarantine"
That was LAST Thursday.
Still no results.
Tests were sent to North Carolina (so I've been told) and took almost 5 days to get there.

So....

Dave

 

[ZombieHunter]

You were saying hundreds of thousands just a couple of weeks ago by that date.

For the whole of the USA, yes. That is still in play, listen you don't get it, but this won't PEAK until early to MID MAY, 5-6 more weeks minimum, social distancing isn't going to kick in and its effect for another 3, peak cases are still going to wipe the floor with our medical system.

 

[ratski]

For the whole of the USA, yes. That is still in play, listen you don't get it, but this won't PEAK until early to MID MAY, 5-6 more weeks minimum, social distancing isn't going to kick in and its effect for another 3, peak cases are still going to wipe the floor with our medical system.

Kinda interesting that we haven't heard a peep out of Bernie as to how his "medicare for all" would have worked this emergency in a better way than this.

And all we hear from Sleepy Joe is "why all the fuss over a beer?"

Hmmm.

Dave