How's it going??
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How's it going??
Anyone follow up on his link to fatality rates from the CDC....
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
Depending on the scenario....
0-19 years: 0.00002
20-49 years: 0.00007
50-69 years: 0.0025
70+ years: 0.028
0-19 years: 0.0001
20-49 years: 0.0003
50-69 years: 0.010
70+ years: 0.093
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
They say these numbers are not predictions on final effects of the virus, and this set of values was taken from data up to August 8th.
Fascinating to say the least.
I would tag Zombiehunter but he seems to be gone?
The way you have presented the numbers is somewhat misleading
It would be better to express them as percentages:
Chance of an infected person dying (depending on the scenario)....subject to change
0-19 years: 0.002%
20-49 years: 0.007%
50-69 years: 0.25%
70+ years: 2.8%
0-19 years: 0.01%
20-49 years: 0.03%
50-69 years: 1.0%
70+ years: 9.3%
0-19 years: 0.003%
20-49 years: 0.02%
50-69 years: 0.5%
70+ years: 5.4%
Main takeaway point appears to be that seniors are at risk and need to take precautions.... Also it should be pointed out that mortality is not the whole story - some survivors suffer permanent damage
As a reference it would be good to see if this can be compared to the impact of different flu strains. I read someone saying it is five times worse than flu, but did not see detailed data to back it up.
What you mean is that it would be more fearful to present it as a percentage. It's a no-brainer that seniors need to take precautions. Well, seniors with co-morbidities. The "permanent damage" has yet to be assessed. Point remains though, as the numbers come about, that this is not something to shut down the nation for.
If percentage is accurate, it's not fearful. It's reality.
Significance is a relative term for sure. Ok since we like understandable percentages......there is a 99.997%-99.5% chance of survival for 85% of the U.S. population upon infection. While there's a 94.6% chance of survival for the remaining 15% vs all the heart disease, cancer, strokes that said population suffers from. IF only people considered diet related diseases with the same urgency and fear. Fun fact though.... here in Oklahoma 75% of the fatalities exhibited AT LEAST one co-morbidity. So per health.ok.gov... ~20% had Chronic lung failure...... ~20% also had kidney failure.... ~50% had heart disease. Also....40% of all Covid related deaths in Oklahoma happened in a LTCF. Given that all these numbers are included in the CDC's IFR, one wonders the significance if you are relatively healthy and under 70. Let's say you are over 70 and have one or more of the co-morbidities, ok, I get it.... but for the rest of us? That's 99.997% - 99.5% and that's even including the fatalities with co-morbidities and obviously excluding asymptomatic cases we have no idea about.
I think we can agree that excess deaths are a cause for concern. If reasonable and affordable steps can be taken to reduce them, they should be taken. I look to medical researchers and public health officials to tell me what reasonable and affordable steps should be taken.
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