Inflation Watch

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ConstitutionCowboy

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We have a 1K tank and filled it up at the end of September at $1.89 per gallon on a pre-buy program. It will hold us until next September. If your propane supplier has such a plan, you might want to consider it. We saved a considerable amount of money.

Woody
 

SlugSlinger

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Who needs oil anyway? $5+ gasoline, here we come! See you soon.


US Demand for Oil Surges, Depleting Tanks in Oklahoma​


Wednesday, 27 October 2021 11:16 AM


Crude oil tanks at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage and delivery hub for U.S. crude futures are more depleted than they have been in the last three years, and prices of further dated oil contracts suggest they will stay lower for months.

U.S. demand for crude among refiners making gasoline and diesel has surged as the economy has recovered from the worst of the pandemic. Demand across the globe means other countries have looked to the United States for crude barrels, also boosting draws out of Cushing.

Analysts expect the draw on inventories to continue in the short-term, which could further boost U.S. crude prices that have already climbed by about 25% in the last two months. The discount on U.S. crude futures to the international Brent benchmark should stay narrow.

"Storage at Cushing alone has the potential to really rally the market to the moon," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.
Cushing stockpiles have dropped to 27.3 million barrels, the lowest since October 2018, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, or about half of where inventories were at this time a year ago.
Inventories have fallen because of a ramp-up in U.S. demand, which has encouraged domestic refiners to keep crude at home to provide fuel such as gasoline and distillates to U.S. consumers, said Reid I'Anson, senior commodity analyst at Kpler.
In addition, U.S. production has been slow to recover from declines seen in 2020. At the end of 2019, the nation was producing roughly 13 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), but in recent weeks has been less than 11.5 million bpd. At the same time, product supplied by refineries - a proxy for demand - is about just 1% below pre-pandemic peaks.
As a result, the spread between U.S. crude and Brent, has collapsed. The spread narrowed to roughly $1.09 a barrel this week from $4.47 earlier this month, which had been about the widest spread since May 2020.
In an additional sign of high short-term demand for U.S. crude, the premium for U.S. crude delivered this December versus December 2022 reached a high this week of $12.48 per barrel, most since at least 2014, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
In the next three months, Rystad Energy expects refinery runs in the United States to increase by 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day. This would outpace production gains of 300,000-400,000 bpd, and keep the spread between the two benchmarks narrow.
"Only if OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) intervenes with more supply of crude or if COVID rears its ugly head again, curbing demand, this high volatility will come off," said Mukesh Sahdev, senior vice president and head of downstream at Rystad Energy.
 

TANSTAAFL

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Don't worry about inflation! If it's not on the shelves you can't spend your money. This is biden's handlers' forced savings program. You don't need no stinkin' bacon or toilet paper, let alone that new car. Because you will save your money you can catch up quickly to bezos and gates since they buy expensive toilet paper and bacon. build back better? You can't build if their are no supplies, but you will collect more taxes.
 

radarmonkey

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I really don't know how these folks play with the numbers to get 4.4%. I know they've been doing it for decades.
 

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yukonjack

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Scary stuff. When people start having trouble putting food on their tables, those who bought a house at way over market value will be wishing they didn’t.

I think most white folks eat too high on the hog anyway. But then again most of them can’t cook from scratch either.
 

Timmy59

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Paid $2.59 for propane last week.
Paid $2.06 when we filled up and have asked for it to be topped off but they won't come for less than 100 gallons.
A fella at work was shopping a fire lake grocery and the tag said save 70 cents, lift that tag and see next weeks price, up 70 cents.
 

Timmy59

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Better grab your butt!

Inflation Is the Mother of Big Political Change


Since excessive inflation is one characteristic outcome of a fiat money system, who is really surprised that such a moment might be on us again? The table would seem to have been set for a long time: Unruly government borrowing. Mounting regulatory burdens and disincentives to business and workers. A decline in labor force participation. The peculiar unwillingness of a large cohort of young men to pursue either work or schooling.

Jerome Powell,

the Fed chief, posits a happy ending: Production resumes, goods and services flow in abundance, inflation is transitory. But he knows it’s not that simple. An apparition of central bankers is the dread inflation psychology, but inflation expectations don’t become embedded in consumer heads because of childhood trauma, but because consumers detect a mindset of policy makers to accommodate inflation. And Mr. Powell, whose renomination is pending, must subordinate himself and his monetary decisions to a fast-rising new agenda in Washington: a whole-of-establishment effort to keep

Donald Trump

from returning to the White House.

Inflation is like Covid: If it gets loose, it will dominate our politics. It causes great unhappiness but also makes new things possible.

In the 1970s, the inflationary crisis imploded a large government establishment occupied with trying to fix the supply and price of air travel, truck transport, rail services and consumer energy supplies. It imploded a tax system that was found to be constantly promoting people into higher brackets even as their real income and living standards declined.

All in all, quite a revolution in government’s role in the economy began under

Jimmy Carter

and continued under

Ronald Reagan,

and was echoed all around the Western world.

Today’s inflation would be hitting an economy with rigidities of its own, mostly of a different kind. Zoning rules depress the supply of housing; licensing restrictions depress the supply of personal services. Wind and solar mandates tax the reliability of the grid. Means-tested entitlements make it less attractive at the margin for Americans to work.

We may discover other vulnerabilities but two gaping ones weren’t part of the story in the 1970s. In 1977 federal debt was 34% of GDP; today it’s 125%. And the share of Americans who’ve experienced direct government aid has quadrupled. It now comprises more than 50% of the population, and that’s before our vast pandemic spending and

Joe Biden’s

welfare ambitions.

Which means a lot could go kerblooey and fast. Rising interest rates could double or triple today’s $400 billion interest bill on the national debt. Overnight, this item could rival Social Security and Medicare as the biggest single budget outlay.

The available options would only compound the public’s unhappiness with inflation: large tax hikes and spending cuts, central bank finance of deficits (leading to more inflation) or heavy-handed measures to force private depositors to hold government debt, essentially expropriating private savings.

Though Social Security benefits nominally are indexed for inflation—a 5.9% increase has been announced for next year—Congress knows well how to claw back benefits by taxing them. For programs like Medicare and Medicaid that deliver in-kind benefits, the even simpler expedient is to cut reimbursements to providers, which users will experience as declining quality and longer wait times.

To the upwelling of voter aggravation, add Congress’s likely targeting of indirect benefits that effectively put almost 100% of Americans on the dole. These include the mortgage-interest deduction and tax-free employer-provided health care.

When voters are angry and at wit’s end as they are when inflation is unraveling their expectations and life plans, new things become possible, good and bad. Evolutionists talk about “punctuated equilibrium.” A bout of society-transforming inflation would certainly get us off an old and exhausted equilibrium and onto a new one that we can hope will prove sustainable in the long run.

Nobody planned our giant experiment in a welfare-cum-administrative state. Its incoherence has long been showing. Many of its features aren’t even about fixing any problem but about satisfying constituencies who want power over their fellow citizens.

All things that live must change and adapt. That includes a fiscal state that so demonstrably has run out of gas that almost everybody, from the most woke to the most Trumpian, senses it in some fashion.
It's called the great re set and it's being spoke about more and more. The folks with a good many days to live yet are in for a ride.
 

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