ONG Rate Lock-In period - 2023

[Michael M]

The ONG Fixed Price Plan is now open until October 17, 2022. The lock-in rate is 8.612 per dekatherm. The September price ONG is charging is 11.154 while the spot price is 7.683 however the 6 month high price is over 9.70. Based on the administration offering to supply natural gas to Europe, the spot price could increase this winter.
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Oklahoma Natural Gas - Billing Options

The ONG Fixed Price Plan is now open until October 17, 2022. The lock-in rate is 8.612 per dekatherm. The September price ONG is charging is 11.154 while the spot price is 7.683 however the 6 month high price is over 9.70. Based on the administration offering to supply natural gas to Europe, the spot price could increase this winter.
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Oklahoma Natural Gas - Billing Options

I have locked in for years now and it really has paid off the last few years.
I always look at NG futures and I see that the high is $8.15 for January 23.
I was told by an OGN rep that they don’t mark up the price which is wrong if they are selling it for over $11 now and cost has been around $8 or less the last few months.
So much for not making profit on the natural gas they buy.
Typical publicity traded company.
The problem is not the price of the gas but all the other adds to the bill.

 

[alank2]

Wow. The lock in is practically twice the price of last year. I hope people see this before the election.

 

[kingfish]

So I need someone to help me understand what is going on in the NG market. I just checked the ONG p/dt and it is down almost $2.50 from Nov. With a lot of LNG being shipped to Europe and shortages predicted, It's hard to understand this drop. It is now below the lock in price by almost a dollar. It should be rising this time of the year. Any ideas?

 

[SlugSlinger]

The energy market prices have been dropping. I think it’s related to decreased demand mostly due to people spending all their money to buy food and live vs driving.

Natural gas prices are tied fairly close to oil prices.

NG is down almost 12% today.

 

[sherrick13]

They be makin some money off of those lock ins.

 

[SlugSlinger]

Looks like the 23-24 ONG rate lock period is open again. Fixed lock at $4.36.

For the 11 months of the 22-23 period, the average I would have paid was $7.34 vs. the lock in of $8.61.

However the months with more usage, November through April, the average would have been $9.10. This average is not weighted by month; that would change the real average amount paid.

 

[cowadle]

Mexico is building a NG floating refinery. i am sure beyond a doubt that it is green and sustainable low carbon climate neutral and has no recognizable gender influences. so that makes it OK....

Oklahoma is slated to close it's NG electric plants by 2027 i think.

 

[alank2]

After feeling like I got completely hosed on the lock in last year, I'm not so excited about it, but 4.36 is certainly much better...

 

[kingfish]

So I ran a spreadsheet on the last 10 mo. that I have been on the fixed rate plan. I paid $90 more over this period. There were a couple of anomalies in that period that affected that difference. For some reason the price per DT took, what to me, was an unusual dip in Dec. and Jan. which seems to go against what one might expect for mid winter pricing. The big hit I took was back in June. After the big blow, my whole home generator ran for almost 4 days until power was restored. That cost me $40 of the $90 from what a normal June usage would have been. Well worth it to have AC over those days. I guess I look at it like insurance. I am being protected from a wild swing that could be caused by geopolitical instability or like two years ago when the weather went crazy and ONG paid ten million dollars per DT for a few days and we all got stuck with paying off that debt with a surcharge tacked on to our bill till the end of time. Those fortunate few who were on the FRP do not have to pay that surcharge. I think the little extra I will probably pay for next year's rate plan is worth the peace of mind not having to worry about an unforeseen price jump.

 

[Harp13]

I locked in for Nov 22 to Oct 23 but have very low usage in the summer months (gas heat and stove and electric water heater and dryer). My higher bills Jan to Apr were due to the higher lock in cost for 22-23 ($8.61) vs 21-22 ($4.54) as the usage was down.

I felt like the lock in at $8.61 was better for me because I had a lower cost in the months with high usage and did not use much gas at all during the months the gas cost was lower than the lock in.

What I did not see initially was that Dec 22 (before the graph) was 25% of my usage and the variable cost was lower by $0.88 DTH. I have only saved $12 so far 22-23 and could potentially go negative if it turns colder in October.

Saved much more in 21-22. I locked in again for 23-24.