Where's the smart money?

[ttown]

If we're so concerned about the dollar being devalued, then why not profit from it by short-selling against other currencies?

Worthless is Worthless, they don't call it the gold standard for nothing. Wait and see..........the ulta-wealthly are buying it by the ton but J6P didn't get the note, who would thunk

 

[perfor8]

But, as you said, if none is no better or worse than the other, on the average you will get the average return.

If you are speculating for the "best" return, you will most likely find "average," and may also find the "worst" or the "best."

If I may, I would like to recommend some reading:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan_(Taleb_book)

I didn't say none are better or worse. I was quoting you. I don't agree that all investments are equivalent.

Since you invoked "large number theory", you must realize that the same math that makes all investments "average", makes none of them "average".

I'm familiar with black swan theory; how do you apply it to investing?

 

[inactive]

I didn't say none are better or worse. I was quoting you. I don't agree that all investments are equivalent.

Since you invoked "large number theory", you must realize that the same math that makes all investments "average", makes none of them "average".

I'm familiar with black swan theory; how do you apply it to investing?

I hedge rather than speculate.

Black Swan Theory with regards to finance is entirely based on protecting from loss, not aggressive speculative buying. The entire premise of Black Swan theory is that no one person can "outsmart" nature and the world in general. If you are familiar but haven't read the book, I highly recommend it, specifically the 2nd edition with the added essay.

 

[perfor8]

I hedge rather than speculate.

Black Swan Theory with regards to finance is entirely based on protecting from loss, not aggressive speculative buying. The entire premise of Black Swan theory is that no one person can "outsmart" nature and the world in general. If you are familiar but haven't read the book, I highly recommend it, specifically the 2nd edition with the added essay.

Thanks, I'll read it.

I guess "hedge" is a fair assessment of what I'm trying to accomplish. I intend to keep what's mine using whatever scheme my God-given mind can hatch.

 

[doctorjj]

Thanks, I'll read it.

I guess "hedge" is a fair assessment of what I'm trying to accomplish. I intend to keep what's mine using whatever scheme my God-given mind can hatch.

If you're thinking more about hedging and are somewhat concerned about inflation (I'm pretty sure I saw a post of yours about that) then have you considered TIPS?
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_tips_glance.htm

 

[ewheeley]

None of this is going to matter once the Muslims impose sharia law. Just keep all that in mind.

 

[perfor8]

Yeah I've seen those doctorjj. I think you still come out losing because the Consumer Price Index is manipulated to give a false representation.

This guy tracks the real CPI (and other) numbers:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

 

[perfor8]

None of this is going to matter once the Muslims impose sharia law. Just keep all that in mind.

THAT would be a black swan event.

 

[inactive]

THAT would be a black swan event.

Haha, indeed

The TIPS look good, but as pointed out they are tracked to only one measure of inflation; while generally accepted it is not exactly conclusive (as it only commodity-based).

And while I consider myself a "hedger" by nature, the TIPS are a bit conservative, even by my standards. I suppose if I were looking at TIPS or other T Bills, I would probably just consider a money market account or CD to save myself the trouble.

 

[doctorjj]

Yeah, I wouldn't go wild with TIPS, being that the Feds get to keep the books on how much they say inflation was, but they might be acceptable for making up a portion of your portfolio.

If you have extra cash sitting on the sidelines, waiting to put it somewhere, it should be in an RCB Go Green checking account. 4.1% interest on up to $25k in a completely liquid account is pretty nice.