Where's the smart money?

[Mos Eisley]

I would not be buying it to "flip" in the short term, and there would be a slew of speculative stocks I could have purchased (Citi, Bank of America, Ford Modor Cmpany) that would have made more than a 11.7% return in the last 24 months.

I bought Citigroup in spring of '09 for 3.27, today it's 4.13. 26% gain, If I'm doing the math right. What I'm really hoping for is the day it gets back up to 40+!

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[LightningCrash]

Of course not.

Please use common sense when you post a question.

But if your only qualifier for taking their advice is their internet-purported net worth, then you haven't used common sense at all.

 

[inactive]

You're using a fallacious argument against gold. Your concern applies to all investment vehicles, not just gold. I'll stipulate to the fact that FRNs (dollars) are being devalued (inflation). I see that as an argument to diversify into something else. ANYTHING in which you invest must increase in value to break even (assuming continued inflation). So, where's the smart money?

If you saw my prior posts in this thread, my whole argument was there is no smart money aside from diversification. I am asserting any investment vehicle is no better or worse than gold. Putting "all your eggs in one basket" financially is a poor idea.

 

[inactive]

I bought Citigroup in spring of '09 for 3.27, today it's 4.13. 26% gain, If I'm doing the math right. What I'm really hoping for is the day it gets back up to 40+!

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I hate that I didn't buy in at 1.02 a share

 

[Mos Eisley]

I hate that I didn't buy in at 1.02 a share

Yep, I was already in at that point and had no more cash to buy more.

 

[perfor8]

If you saw my prior posts in this thread, my whole argument was there is no smart money aside from diversification. I am asserting any investment vehicle is no better or worse than gold. Putting "all your eggs in one basket" financially is a poor idea.

If none are better or worse, why diversify?

Like Mark Twain said, "put all your eggs in one basket and, watch that basket".

 

[ewheeley]

If we're so concerned about the dollar being devalued, then why not profit from it by short-selling against other currencies?

 

[inactive]

If none are better or worse, why diversify?

Like Mark Twain said, "put all your eggs in one basket and, watch that basket".

 

[perfor8]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

I'm not looking for an "average" return.

 

[inactive]

I'm not looking for an "average" return.

But, as you said, if none is no better or worse than the other, on the average you will get the average return.

If you are speculating for the "best" return, you will most likely find "average," and may also find the "worst" or the "best."

If I may, I would like to recommend some reading:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan_(Taleb_book)