Trump will be the nominee. What says you?

[Dale00]

No to Trump as preordained nominee - this fight is not over by any means.

Following the South Carolina primary, an interesting article by Michael Harrington went around Facebook that speculated that Donald Trump’s victory in the South Carolina primary was attributable to Democrats voting in the Republican (open) primary. One of the good things about Harrington’s article is that he put out a testable hypothesis — that turnout in the Democratic primary a few days later would be less than 390,000. In fact, it was 367,000. Harrington concludes that had South Carolina had a closed primary, Ted Cruz would have won the primary there. I don’t know him and the author seems to be anti-Trump based on other things he has written — but the fact that his prediction was borne out adds some independent verification to his thesis. So that got me to thinking.

If true, why does this matter? Because so far the primary calendar has been heavily tilted toward open primaries. But there have been four closed elections: the Iowa caucus, the Nevada caucus, and Super Tuesday’s Oklahoma primary and Alaska caucus. Ted Cruz won three of those four closed elections.

So here’s where it potentially gets interesting. Although the media are looking forward to March 15, this Saturday (March 5) there are four Republican primaries/caucuses: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine. All are closed.

Then, once the winner-takes-all states begin, a large number of those are closed primaries and caucuses as well (including Florida, for what it’s worth).

That suggests at least two things.

First, the fact that South Carolina and most of the SEC primaries were open primaries may very well explain why those states did not turn out to be Ted Cruz’s firewall or launch states as he had predicted. Oklahoma did perform as expected, being a fairly comfortable win for Cruz. The timeless Pauline Kael quote that has been back in circulation lately may not necessarily be incorrect among actual Republicans.

Second, the four closed primaries and caucuses this Saturday could be very interesting to watch, particularly to see whether Trump can maintain his momentum in closed primary states where he will have to appeal to the traditional Republican base. I haven’t gone through the remainder of the states to calculate in detail how many delegates will be selected through this series of closed primaries and whether those are enough to win. Trump also might start winning closed primaries and caucuses. But this has been his Achilles heel so far.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/03/02/so-far-trump-wins-open-primaries-and-cruz-wins-closed-and-the-calendar-is-starting-to-change-toward-more-closed-primaries/

 

[Glocktogo]

No to Trump as preordained nominee - this fight is not over by any means.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/03/02/so-far-trump-wins-open-primaries-and-cruz-wins-closed-and-the-calendar-is-starting-to-change-toward-more-closed-primaries/

With just a little work, Cruz could easily take Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana. Maine will go to Rubio most likely, with Trump second. That's RINO country up there and they're weird.

Cruz could also take Idaho and Mississippi on the 8th, which would be 204 delegates with the aforementioned three. Maine is only 23 and Florida is 99, which Rubio might very well lose to Trump. Even if Trump takes some of the others, that doesn't hurt Cruz in relation to Rubio.

Hopefully someone over in the Rubio campaign doesn't have their head in the sand the way Marco does.

 

[blazeitornot]

Santorum, Romney and Cruz. You're a nice guy, Oklahoma.

 

[Shootin 4 Fun]

How can anyone call Rubio a RINO while simultaneously calling Trump a Conservative? That defies logic. Trump is at best a opportunistic politician willing to champion some (and dig around because the "some" isn't very deep) policies that conservatives favor. I am conservative and support regulating and controlling immigration but Trump's policies (if one can call them that) are nothing but empty slogans. I think that the people who support him like what he is saying because it is emotionally satisfying to hear someone say "damn right - I'm with you" but they aren't really looking at or asking "and how will you do that?"

Likewise on abortion policy, trade policy, etc. Heck, he decries corruption in DC but has been a purveyor of corruption also by that same logic George Soros should be your number two choice because he is rich enough to buy politicians too.

Read the post. I said "conservative" not conservative.

At least Trump is not promoting illegal immigration. That is a step above Rubio.

 

[RidgeHunter]

I'm just waiting for a Trump crowd to stomp a protester to death. Wonder if that would help or hurt his campaign?



LOL. I'm kidding. Of course it would help. Especially if it was a black.

 

[71buickfreak]

How can anyone call Rubio a RINO while simultaneously calling Trump a Conservative? That defies logic. Trump is at best a opportunistic politician willing to champion some (and dig around because the "some" isn't very deep) policies that conservatives favor. I am conservative and support regulating and controlling immigration but Trump's policies (if one can call them that) are nothing but empty slogans. I think that the people who support him like what he is saying because it is emotionally satisfying to hear someone say "damn right - I'm with you" but they aren't really looking at or asking "and how will you do that?"

Likewise on abortion policy, trade policy, etc. Heck, he decries corruption in DC but has been a purveyor of corruption also by that same logic George Soros should be your number two choice because he is rich enough to buy politicians too.

When it comes to stopping a thief, do you hire another guy who says he isn't a thief or the admitted thief who knows how thieves operate? Every single anti-fraud device employed on checks is because the FBI hired the guy that committed millions of dollars in fraud for years through kiting the check system. Sometimes the thief is the best defense against other thieves.

 

[mugsy]

Read the post. I said "conservative" not conservative.

At least Trump is not promoting illegal immigration. That is a step above Rubio.

I missed the implication of your "xxx"

 

[Raoul Duke]

Wonder if that would help or hurt his campaign?

Hurt, unless protesters were illegal aliens, then I am confident it would help.

 

[RidgeHunter]

Hurt, unless protesters were illegal aliens, then I am confident it would help.

Ehh, I bet a good stomping of an uppity negress would really warm the cockles of Trump-loving hearts.

 

[RidgeHunter]

I missed the implication of your "xxx"

I think that it means porn.